Predicting the spread of epidemiological diseases by using a multi-objective algorithm
The epidemiological models are able to predict the spread of diseases, but a previous work on calibrating some involved parameters must be done. In this work, we propose a methodology to adjust those parameters based on solving a multi-objective optimization problem whose objective functions measure...
| Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Publication Date: | 2019 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) |
| Repository: | Docta Complutense |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/13159 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13159 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | 519.87: 616-036.22 51 Modelos matemáticos Epidemiología Optimization problems Mathematical models Epidemiology Matemáticas (Matemáticas) 12 Matemáticas |
| Summary: | The epidemiological models are able to predict the spread of diseases, but a previous work on calibrating some involved parameters must be done. In this work, we propose a methodology to adjust those parameters based on solving a multi-objective optimization problem whose objective functions measure the accuracy of the model. More precisely, we have considered the Between-Countries Disease Spread model because it involves a set of countries taking into account the migratory movements among them. As a result, using some real data about the number of detected cases and the number of deaths for the Ebola virus disease, we have shown that the methodology is able to find a set of values for the parameters so that the model fits the outbreak spread for a set of countries. |
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