Predicting the spread of epidemiological diseases by using a multi-objective algorithm

The epidemiological models are able to predict the spread of diseases, but a previous work on calibrating some involved parameters must be done. In this work, we propose a methodology to adjust those parameters based on solving a multi-objective optimization problem whose objective functions measure...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Fernández, M. R., Ivorra, Benjamín Pierre Paul, Redondo, J. L., Ramos, A. M., Ortigosa, P. M.
Format: article
Publication Date:2019
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repository:Docta Complutense
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/13159
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13159
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:519.87: 616-036.22
51
Modelos matemáticos
Epidemiología
Optimization problems
Mathematical models
Epidemiology
Matemáticas (Matemáticas)
12 Matemáticas
Description
Summary:The epidemiological models are able to predict the spread of diseases, but a previous work on calibrating some involved parameters must be done. In this work, we propose a methodology to adjust those parameters based on solving a multi-objective optimization problem whose objective functions measure the accuracy of the model. More precisely, we have considered the Between-Countries Disease Spread model because it involves a set of countries taking into account the migratory movements among them. As a result, using some real data about the number of detected cases and the number of deaths for the Ebola virus disease, we have shown that the methodology is able to find a set of values for the parameters so that the model fits the outbreak spread for a set of countries.