Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression

Agents' perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents' expectations. With this aim, we evalua...

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Authors: Clavería González, Óscar, Monte Moreno, Enric, Torra Porras, Salvador
Format: article
Status:Versión aceptada para publicación
Publication Date:2017
Country:España
Institution:Universidad de Barcelona
Repository:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/107026
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107026
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Anàlisi de regressió
Algorismes
Programació (Matemàtica)
Previsió econòmica
Regression analysis
Algorithms
Mathematical programming
Economic forecasting
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spelling Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regressionClavería González, ÓscarMonte Moreno, EnricTorra Porras, SalvadorAnàlisi de regressióAlgorismesProgramació (Matemàtica)Previsió econòmicaRegression analysisAlgorithmsMathematical programmingEconomic forecastingAgents' perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents' expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents' expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.Taylor and Francis2017info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/107026Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésVersió postprint del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419Applied Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 24, num. 9, p. 648-652http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419(c) Taylor and Francis, 2017info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1070262026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
title Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
spellingShingle Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
Clavería González, Óscar
Anàlisi de regressió
Algorismes
Programació (Matemàtica)
Previsió econòmica
Regression analysis
Algorithms
Mathematical programming
Economic forecasting
title_short Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
title_full Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
title_fullStr Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
title_sort Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Clavería González, Óscar
Monte Moreno, Enric
Torra Porras, Salvador
author Clavería González, Óscar
author_facet Clavería González, Óscar
Monte Moreno, Enric
Torra Porras, Salvador
author_role author
author2 Monte Moreno, Enric
Torra Porras, Salvador
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Anàlisi de regressió
Algorismes
Programació (Matemàtica)
Previsió econòmica
Regression analysis
Algorithms
Mathematical programming
Economic forecasting
topic Anàlisi de regressió
Algorismes
Programació (Matemàtica)
Previsió econòmica
Regression analysis
Algorithms
Mathematical programming
Economic forecasting
description Agents' perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents' expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents' expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107026
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107026
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Versió postprint del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419
Applied Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 24, num. 9, p. 648-652
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) Taylor and Francis, 2017
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) Taylor and Francis, 2017
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor and Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor and Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.300724

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