Incidence and time until disease detection in a stochastic model with vaccination and general transmission

In this study, we focus on the detection of a vaccine-preventable communicable disease using a stochastic SIR com-partmental model, which includes an additional compartment for individuals protected by vaccination. Althoughthe vaccine is administered as a preventive measure before the onset of the d...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: López Herrero, María Jesús, Mustaro, Verdiana, Taipe Hidalgo, Diana Paulina
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/127382
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/127382
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:519.2:61
616
Detection of the disease
Imperfect vaccine
Markov chain
Stochastic epidemic model
Medicina
Estadística aplicada
2404.01 Bioestadística
6310.03 Enfermedad
Descripción
Sumario:In this study, we focus on the detection of a vaccine-preventable communicable disease using a stochastic SIR com-partmental model, which includes an additional compartment for individuals protected by vaccination. Althoughthe vaccine is administered as a preventive measure before the onset of the disease, its efficacy diminishes with time,which requires booster doses for susceptible individuals. Using a continuous-time Markov chain, we examine thetime required for disease detection (i.e., full confirmation of the disease) and analyze the incidence rates before detec-tion, both within the vaccinated group and throughout the population. To illustrate the usefulness of our theoreticalderivations and algorithmic schemes, we will present a numerical study involving the above descriptors for outbreaksof foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cattle.