Nature's choice? a study of the displacement of incumbents in elections
How do economic shocks affect the behaviour of elections in democracies? Using U.S. Congress electoral data, I test whether sudden shocks affect unequally incumbent par- ties and opponents. This is identified through, among other procedures, a regression discontinuity design. I consider possible the...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis de maestría |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2013 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/10937 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/10937 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Regression discontinuity Incomplete information Incumbency Regressão em descontinuidade Efeitos de incumbência Informação incompleta Economia Eleições - Modelos econômicos |
| Sumario: | How do economic shocks affect the behaviour of elections in democracies? Using U.S. Congress electoral data, I test whether sudden shocks affect unequally incumbent par- ties and opponents. This is identified through, among other procedures, a regression discontinuity design. I consider possible theoretical channels for this effect, where cit- izens cannot perfectly observe whether their lack of public goods is due to an adverse shock, or due to private consumption by a politician. I find that, with observable shocks close to the election, there is no effect. Empirical evidence is consistent with the theory. |
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