Huaraz city urban growth modeling through logistic regression
In 1941, Huaraz city was affected by a flood from Palcacocha glacier lagoon, thenceforth the city grew significantly occupying areas exposed to floods. For future risks analysis, city growth prospective evaluation is necessary, being logistic regression a widely used technique. Using geomatic tools,...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | Perú |
| Institución: | Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos |
| Repositorio: | Revistas - Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe:article/20644 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/iigeo/article/view/20644 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Urban growth logistic regression geomatic spatial trend Huaraz crecimiento urbano regresión logística geomática tendencia espacial |
| Sumario: | In 1941, Huaraz city was affected by a flood from Palcacocha glacier lagoon, thenceforth the city grew significantly occupying areas exposed to floods. For future risks analysis, city growth prospective evaluation is necessary, being logistic regression a widely used technique. Using geomatic tools, aerial and satellite photographs from 1948, 1962, 1977, 2011 and 2018 were visually and geometrically corrected taking cadastral map 1:10,000 as base cartography. With complementary field work polygons of urban/populated areas were obtained within a 25 km² analysis zone, with which the historical spatial trend and growth characteristics were analyzed in relation to variables such slope, altitude, distance from city middle center, direction growth and point density; which were used as independent variables in the regression logistic model being the dependent the 2018 urban/populated coverage. Between 1948 and 2018 Huaraz grew 598% in South-North direction with bias towards East. Excluding 2018 urban/populated area, 21% of the analysis zone has probabilities of housing new urban/populated areas greater than 0.2, prevailing 0.2 to 0.4 probabilities with 11%. |
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