Covid-19 pandemic and effect of containment measures in the Peruvian population: A SIR mathematical modeling
Introduction: The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic varies in each population; it has been complicating health systems worldwide. Objective: to analyze the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, estimating the effect of the containment measures practiced in Peru. Material and Method: The SIR epidemiol...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | Perú |
| Institución: | Cuerpo Médico Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo |
| Repositorio: | Revista del Cuerpo Médico Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:cmhnaaa_ojs_cmhnaaa.cmhnaaa.org.pe:article/656 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://cmhnaaa.org.pe/ojs/index.php/rcmhnaaa/article/view/656 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Pandemia infecciones por coronavirus transmisión número básico de reproducción Perú Pandemics coronavirus infections transmission basic reproduction number Peru |
| Sumario: | Introduction: The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic varies in each population; it has been complicating health systems worldwide. Objective: to analyze the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, estimating the effect of the containment measures practiced in Peru. Material and Method: The SIR epidemiological mathematical modeling was applied, estimating the COVID-19 evolution in our population. Data analysis was performed following the SIR mathematical model with defined ordinary differential equations to simulate epidemiological behavior; and it was executed in the RStudio programming language. Results: Containment measures decreased the propagation rate, reducing 30% of infected cases until the peak day of infection; however, it is still above the effective reproductive number to control the epidemic and it shows an erratic trend, the result of government actions being 61% in the practice of containment measures. Conclusions: Containment measures are necessary if strategies are considered to make their role effective in our population. |
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