Unobserved effects of monetary policy in the Peru’s departments output and unemployment

This is the first article in a series of two. A NAIRU-Keynesian model is developed for Peru’s departments (regions) to analyse whether there is a stable relationship between inflation and unemployment, and inflation and the output gap as documented in the Peruvian literature. I applied GLS for model...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Mendoza Vargas, Oscar Manuel
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:Perú
Institución:Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
Repositorio:Revistas - Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe:article/25024
Acceso en línea:https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/econo/article/view/25024
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Phillips curve
monetary policy
decentralised effects
inflation
unemployment
Curva de Phillips
política monetaria
efectos descentralizados
inflación
desempleo
Descripción
Sumario:This is the first article in a series of two. A NAIRU-Keynesian model is developed for Peru’s departments (regions) to analyse whether there is a stable relationship between inflation and unemployment, and inflation and the output gap as documented in the Peruvian literature. I applied GLS for model estimation. My results document a positive relationship between future inflation rates and the gap in departmental unemployment rates concerning national unemployment rates, I evidence the Phillips curve flattening at the departmental level when estimating with the output gap, which is consistent with the national aggregate models, but there is a more elastic relationship when estimating with departmental unemployment rates. This represents unobserved effects for the monetary policy maker and requires further research.