Estimación local de riesgo sísmico mediante simulación estocástica

A method is presented for the estimation of seismic risk in regions whose seismic history is complete and for which no acceleration data exists, based on Monte Cario Simulations of the seismic process, using a minimum of assumptions. Application of this method to the estimation of seismic risk for t...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Nava, F. A., Lomnitz, Cinna
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:1984
País:México
Institución:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
Repositorio:Geofísica Internacional
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx:article/1017
Acceso en línea:http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/1017
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Sismicidad
Riesgo sísmico
Simulación estocástica
Estimación
Laguna Verde
Veracruz
Seismicity
Seismic risk
Stochastic Simulation
Estimate
Green Lagoon
Descripción
Sumario:A method is presented for the estimation of seismic risk in regions whose seismic history is complete and for which no acceleration data exists, based on Monte Cario Simulations of the seismic process, using a minimum of assumptions. Application of this method to the estimation of seismic risk for the nuclear power plant at Laguna Verde, Mexico (based on rough assumptions), indicates that a pessimistic estimation for the risk for a 50 year period is about 6.0% for the OBE acceleration of0.12g, and about 0.97% for the SSE acceleration of 0.24g.