Imaging the earthquake cycle with the Moment-Ratio Method: An exploration

The seismic moment cycle at plate boundaries may be imaged by the Moment-Ratio Method (MRM). In this exploratory technique the fluctuation of cumulative moment deficiency is used as an indicator of the cycle of degradation and recovery of free energy along an active tectonic region. A 20-year half-l...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: C. Zhang, Y. Shi, L. Ma, J. Huang, C. Lomnitz
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2009
País:México
Institución:Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Repositorio:Redalyc-UNAM
OAI Identifier:oai:redalyc.org:56813219006
Acceso en línea:https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56813219006
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Ciencias de la Tierra
earthquake prediction
Cumulative seismic moment
subduction zone seismicity
Descripción
Sumario:The seismic moment cycle at plate boundaries may be imaged by the Moment-Ratio Method (MRM). In this exploratory technique the fluctuation of cumulative moment deficiency is used as an indicator of the cycle of degradation and recovery of free energy along an active tectonic region. A 20-year half-life is assumed for the healing process of earthquake ruptures along the Pacific plate boundary. Using the Pacheco-Sykes Catalog of large shallow earthquakes (M>7), we estimate the moment ratio for Japan and Mexico at 20-year intervals during the 20th century. Moment-ratio peaks for 1980 correlate with subsequent earthquakes of magnitude M>7 during the following 20-year period in Mexico and Japan.