Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Author: abay, solomon
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2018
Country:México
Institution:Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
Repository:Repositorio Institucional Abierto de Conocimiento en Salud Pública
Language:Spanish
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.insp.mx:20.500.12096/8030
Online Access:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltext
https://www.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5
http://repositorio.insp.mx:8080/jspui/handle/20.500.12096/8030
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:AdolescentAdultAgedBirth Rate,ChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlobal Burden of Disease statistics numerical dataGlobal Health statistics numerical dataGlobal Health trendsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMaternal AgeMiddle AgedMortalityPopulation Density,Population GrowthYoung Adult,SD
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/3
id MX_e6e5be693882cf06c9bc05fc2ff42c4e
oai_identifier_str oai:repositorio.insp.mx:20.500.12096/8030
network_acronym_str MX
network_name_str México
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
title Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
spellingShingle Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
abay, solomon
AdolescentAdultAgedBirth Rate,ChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlobal Burden of Disease statistics numerical dataGlobal Health statistics numerical dataGlobal Health trendsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMaternal AgeMiddle AgedMortalityPopulation Density,Population GrowthYoung Adult,SD
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/3
title_short Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
title_full Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
title_fullStr Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
title_full_unstemmed Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
title_sort Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv abay, solomon
author abay, solomon
author_facet abay, solomon
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv AdolescentAdultAgedBirth Rate,ChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlobal Burden of Disease statistics numerical dataGlobal Health statistics numerical dataGlobal Health trendsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMaternal AgeMiddle AgedMortalityPopulation Density,Population GrowthYoung Adult,SD
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/3
topic AdolescentAdultAgedBirth Rate,ChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlobal Burden of Disease statistics numerical dataGlobal Health statistics numerical dataGlobal Health trendsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMaternal AgeMiddle AgedMortalityPopulation Density,Population GrowthYoung Adult,SD
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/3
description Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
2022-02-16T04:24:41Z
2022-02-16T04:24:41Z
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv sicabi.insp.mx:2018-None
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltext
https://www.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5
http://repositorio.insp.mx:8080/jspui/handle/20.500.12096/8030
identifier_str_mv sicabi.insp.mx:2018-None
url https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltext
https://www.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5
http://repositorio.insp.mx:8080/jspui/handle/20.500.12096/8030
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv nacional
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ESPM INSP
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ESPM INSP
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional Abierto de Conocimiento en Salud Pública
instname:Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
instacron:INSP
instname_str Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
instacron_str INSP
institution INSP
reponame_str Repositorio Institucional Abierto de Conocimiento en Salud Pública
collection Repositorio Institucional Abierto de Conocimiento en Salud Pública
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1858177454377533440
spelling Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017abay, solomonAdolescentAdultAgedBirth Rate,ChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlobal Burden of Disease statistics numerical dataGlobal Health statistics numerical dataGlobal Health trendsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMaternal AgeMiddle AgedMortalityPopulation Density,Population GrowthYoung Adult,SDinfo:eu-repo/classification/cti/3Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.ESPM INSP2022-02-16T04:24:41Z2022-02-16T04:24:41Z2018info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpdfsicabi.insp.mx:2018-Nonehttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltexthttps://www.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5http://repositorio.insp.mx:8080/jspui/handle/20.500.12096/8030reponame:Repositorio Institucional Abierto de Conocimiento en Salud Públicainstname:Instituto Nacional de Salud Públicainstacron:INSPspanacionalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0oai:repositorio.insp.mx:20.500.12096/80302024-08-27T22:04:40Z
score 15,811543

Similar Items