Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico

A thermodynamic model is used to predict the mean monthly sea surface temperature anomalies and their month-to-month changes in the Gulf of Mexico. The basic predicting equation of the Model is the thermal energy equation applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean, which includes the horizontal t...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Adem, J., Villanueva, E. E., Mendoza, V. M.
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:1994
País:México
Recursos:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
Repositorio:Geofísica Internacional
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx:article/519
Acesso em linha:http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/519
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Predicción
modelo termodinámico
Golfo de México
Prediction
Thermodynamic model
Gulf of Mexico
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spelling Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of MexicoPreliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of MexicoAdem, J.Villanueva, E. E.Mendoza, V. M.Predicciónmodelo termodinámicoGolfo de MéxicoPredictionThermodynamic modelGulf of MexicoA thermodynamic model is used to predict the mean monthly sea surface temperature anomalies and their month-to-month changes in the Gulf of Mexico. The basic predicting equation of the Model is the thermal energy equation applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean, which includes the horizontal transport of heat by seasonal ocean currents and by turbulent eddies, as well as the heating by short and long-wave radiation, evaporation and sensible heat. A comparative study is carried out on the relative importance for the prediction of the heating and transport terms. An objective verification of the predictions is presented for each season and for the whole period from March 1986 to February 1987, which shows skill in the signs correctly predicted of the sea surface temperature anomalies, as well as of their month-to-month changes, when the heating terms are only included in the predictions. However, the skill is increased when the horizontal transport of heat is also included.Se usa un modelo termodinámico para predecir anomalías medias mensuales de la temperatura de la superficie del mar y de sus cambios mes ames en el Golfo de México. La ecuación de predicción básica del modelo es la ecuación de la energía térmica aplicada a la capa de mezcla del océano, la cual incluye el transporte horizontal de calor por corrientes oceánicas estacionales y por remolinos turbulentos, as! como el calentamiento por radiación de onda corta y larga, evaporación y calor sensible. Se hace un estudio comparativo sobre la relativa importancia para la predicción de los términos de calentamiento y transporte. Se presenta una verificación objetiva de las predicciones para cada estación y para todo el periodo de marzo de 1986 a febrero de 1987, la cual muestra habilidad en los signos correctamente predichos de las anomalías de la temperatura de la superficie del mar y de sus cambios mes ames, cuando únicamente los términos de calentamiento son incluidos en las predicciones. Sin embargo, la habilidad se incrementa cuando también es incluido el transporte horizontal de calor.Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Instituto de Geofísica1994-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/51910.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.4.585Geofisica Internacional; Vol. 33 No. 4 (1994): October 1, 1994; 511-521Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 33 Núm. 4 (1994): Octubre 1, 1994; 511-5212954-436X0016-716910.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.4reponame:Geofísica Internacionalinstname:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICOinstacron:UNAMspahttp://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/519/537Derechos de autor 2022 Geofisica Internacionalhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx:article/5192024-08-16T17:31:54Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
title Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
spellingShingle Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
Adem, J.
Predicción
modelo termodinámico
Golfo de México
Prediction
Thermodynamic model
Gulf of Mexico
title_short Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
title_full Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
title_fullStr Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
title_full_unstemmed Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
title_sort Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Adem, J.
Villanueva, E. E.
Mendoza, V. M.
author Adem, J.
author_facet Adem, J.
Villanueva, E. E.
Mendoza, V. M.
author_role author
author2 Villanueva, E. E.
Mendoza, V. M.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Predicción
modelo termodinámico
Golfo de México
Prediction
Thermodynamic model
Gulf of Mexico
topic Predicción
modelo termodinámico
Golfo de México
Prediction
Thermodynamic model
Gulf of Mexico
description A thermodynamic model is used to predict the mean monthly sea surface temperature anomalies and their month-to-month changes in the Gulf of Mexico. The basic predicting equation of the Model is the thermal energy equation applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean, which includes the horizontal transport of heat by seasonal ocean currents and by turbulent eddies, as well as the heating by short and long-wave radiation, evaporation and sensible heat. A comparative study is carried out on the relative importance for the prediction of the heating and transport terms. An objective verification of the predictions is presented for each season and for the whole period from March 1986 to February 1987, which shows skill in the signs correctly predicted of the sea surface temperature anomalies, as well as of their month-to-month changes, when the heating terms are only included in the predictions. However, the skill is increased when the horizontal transport of heat is also included.
publishDate 1994
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 1994-10-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/519
10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.4.585
url http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/519
identifier_str_mv 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.4.585
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/519/537
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Derechos de autor 2022 Geofisica Internacional
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Derechos de autor 2022 Geofisica Internacional
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Instituto de Geofísica
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Instituto de Geofísica
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Geofisica Internacional; Vol. 33 No. 4 (1994): October 1, 1994; 511-521
Geofísica Internacional; Vol. 33 Núm. 4 (1994): Octubre 1, 1994; 511-521
2954-436X
0016-7169
10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.4
reponame:Geofísica Internacional
instname:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
instacron:UNAM
instname_str UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
instacron_str UNAM
institution UNAM
reponame_str Geofísica Internacional
collection Geofísica Internacional
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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