Simulación y pronóstico de lluvias: una aplicación al Estado de Tlaxcala, México

Deterministic and stochastic models of simulation and forecasting of rain are applied to sorne areas of Tlaxcala state (Mexico). The logistic model is used in simulation and forecasting of weekly rain with very good results. For total annual rain we use a multiple smoothing technique based on higher...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Ritter Ortiz, W., Guzmán Ruiz, S.
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:1991
País:México
Recursos:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
Repositorio:Geofísica Internacional
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx:article/1225
Acesso em linha:http://revistagi.geofisica.unam.mx/index.php/RGI/article/view/1225
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Simulación y pronóstico de lluvias
Tlaxcala
México
Rainfall forecasting
Mexico
Descrição
Resumo:Deterministic and stochastic models of simulation and forecasting of rain are applied to sorne areas of Tlaxcala state (Mexico). The logistic model is used in simulation and forecasting of weekly rain with very good results. For total annual rain we use a multiple smoothing technique based on higher-order polynomials. In forecasting of consecutive days of rain or drought a stochastic Markov chain model is used.