QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF NATIONAL MEXICAN REAL ESTATE PRICES

OBJECTIVE: To explain Mexican home prices using fundamental, macroeconomic variables in order to identify possible financial bubble tendencies within the Mexican national housing market during the period 2005 to 2018. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The present study analyzes quarterly data of Mexican real est...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Michael Demmler
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:México
Institución:Universidad Juaréz Autónoma de Tabasco
Repositorio:Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:ri.ujat.mx:20.500.12107/3724
Acceso en línea:https://ri.ujat.mx/handle/20.500.12107/3724
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:info:eu-repo/classification/cti/5
Mexican real estate market
Asset price bubble
Regression analysis
Descripción
Sumario:OBJECTIVE: To explain Mexican home prices using fundamental, macroeconomic variables in order to identify possible financial bubble tendencies within the Mexican national housing market during the period 2005 to 2018. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The present study analyzes quarterly data of Mexican real estate market prices and various fundamental, macroeconomic variables during the period 2005 to 2018. The quantitative research approach of the study is based on descriptive statistics and regression analyses. RESULTS: The main results of the study are as follows: First, a simple comparison between market prices and fundamental values shows some kind of (preliminary) evidence of bubble tendencies on the Mexican national real estate market. Secondly, a more sophisticated regression analysis concludes that especially the fundamental variables outstanding mortgage volume and unemployment rate can explain real estate market price movements almost perfectly. CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis of a financial bubble within the national Mexican real estate market is then rejected, in the considered period 2005 to 2018.