EFFECTS OF COLOMBIA’S CENTRAL BANK REPUTATION ON FORECAST ERRORS OF THE INTEREST RATE
This study analyzes the effects of Colombia’s central bank reputation and communication on the forecast errors of the monetary policy interest rate. A methodology is implemented that consists of calculating the forecast error through financial market expectations for horizons of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 mo...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | México |
| Institución: | UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO |
| Repositorio: | Investigación Económica |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/86454 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.revistas.unam.mx/index.php/rie/article/view/86454 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Forecast errors interest rate expectations communication monetary policy errores de pronóstico expectativas de tasa de interés comunicación política monetaria |
| Sumario: | This study analyzes the effects of Colombia’s central bank reputation and communication on the forecast errors of the monetary policy interest rate. A methodology is implemented that consists of calculating the forecast error through financial market expectations for horizons of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Subsequently, different communication indicators of the Central Bank are built to estimate their effects on forecast errors. The econometric estimates allowed us to identify that reputation helps to reduce forecast errors, both in the short and long term. On the other hand, the monetary policy news reduces the errors for the horizons of 1, 3, 6 and 9 months. Finally, it was found that the clarity of the communication only matters at 1 and 3 months. The main policy recommendation is to consolidate the reputation of monetary policy and improve communication channels in order to influence long-term expectations more strongly. |
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