International transmission of U.S. macroeconomic shocks in the USMCA region*

We study the international transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks on the USMCA region using a global approach. The study relies on a GVAR (Global Vector Autoregressive) model and generalized impulse-response functions (GIRF). The main findings suggest that: 1) The USMCA economies are contemp...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Javier Emmanuel Anguiano Pita, Antonio Ruiz Porras
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:México
Recursos:Universidad de Guadalajara
Repositorio:Redalyc-UDG
OAI Identifier:oai:redalyc.org:41377471002
Acesso em linha:https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=41377471002
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/413/41377471002/
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/413/41377471002/html/
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/413/41377471002/41377471002.epub
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/413/41377471002/movil
https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2024v39n100/Anguiano
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Economía y Finanzas
USMCA
GIRFs
GVAR Model
Macroeconomic shocks
International transmission
Descrição
Resumo:We study the international transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks on the USMCA region using a global approach. The study relies on a GVAR (Global Vector Autoregressive) model and generalized impulse-response functions (GIRF). The main findings suggest that: 1) The USMCA economies are contemporaneously linked to the world economy mainly through private credit, international trade and real GDP; 2) shocks on U.S. GDP and U.S. trade flows have higher influence in Canada than in Mexico; 3) shocks on U.S. interest rates have higher influence in Mexico than in Canada; 4) the private credit and the international trade channels are the most important ones for the transmission of international macroeconomic shocks. The study relies on quarterly data for 33 countries of the period 1986:Q1-2019:Q4.