Predictive Model to Identify College Students with High Dropout Rates

Decreasing student attrition rates is one of the main objectives of most higher education institutions. However, to achieve this goal, universities need to accurately identify and focus their efforts on students most likely to quit their studies before they graduate. This has given rise to a need to...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Hoyos Osorio, Jhoan Keider, Daza Santacoloma, Genaro
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:México
Institución:UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA
Repositorio:Revista Electrónica de Investigacion Educativa
Idioma:inglés
español
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.redie.uabc.mx:article/5398
Acceso en línea:https://redie.uabc.mx/redie/article/view/5398
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:dropping out
college students
forecasting
regression analysis
deserción escolar
estudiante universitario
previsión
análisis de regresión
evasão escolar
estudante universitário
previsão
análise de regressão
Descripción
Sumario:Decreasing student attrition rates is one of the main objectives of most higher education institutions. However, to achieve this goal, universities need to accurately identify and focus their efforts on students most likely to quit their studies before they graduate. This has given rise to a need to implement forecasting models to predict which students will eventually drop out. In this paper, we present an early warning system to automatically identify first-semester students at high risk of dropping out. The system is based on a machine learning model trained from historical data on first-semester students. The results show that the system can predict “at-risk” students with a sensitivity of 61.97%, which allows early intervention for those students, thereby reducing the student attrition rate.