Climate-change-induced temporal variation in precipitation increases nitrogen losses from intensive cropping systems: Analysis with a toy model

A simple ‘toy’ model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted (and observed) to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Vitousek, P.M., Xinping Chen, Cui, Z., Liu, X., Matson, P.A., Ortiz-Monasterio, I., Robertson, G., Fusuo Zhang
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:México
Institución:Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo
Repositorio:Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYT
OAI Identifier:oai:repository.cimmyt.org:10883/22318
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22318
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
Fertilizer Timing
Nitrogen Loss
Precipitation Variability
Toy Model
CROP YIELD
FERTILIZERS
NITROGEN
CROPPING SYSTEMS
Sustainable Agrifood Systems
Descripción
Sumario:A simple ‘toy’ model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted (and observed) to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N that can cause environmental damage and affect human health. The model predicted that as temporal variability in precipitation increased it progressively reduced yields and increased losses of reactive N by disrupting the synchrony between N supply and plant N uptake. Also, increases in the temporal variation of precipitation increased the frequency of floods and droughts. Predictions of this model indicate that climate-change-driven increases in temporal variation in precipitation in rainfed agricultural ecosystems will make it difficult to sustain cropping systems that are both high-yielding and have small environmental and human-health footprints.