Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)

Bello-Jiménez, Brenda Liliana; B. Raga, Graciela; Wurl, Jobst

Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)

This study focuses on identifying modulations by large-scale synoptic, inter-annual, and decadal oscillations on the extreme rainfall in the state of Baja California Sur, and provides statistical models to forecast future evolution. The region is arid, with 70% of precipitation from July to October,...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores:	Bello-Jiménez, Brenda Liliana, B. Raga, Graciela, Wurl, Jobst
Tipo de recurso:	artículo
Estado:	Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:	2024
País:	México
Institución:	UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
Repositorio:	Atmósfera
Idioma:	inglés
OAI Identifier:	oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/53335
Acceso en línea:	https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335
Access Level:	acceso abierto
Palabra clave:	hydroclimatic extremes climate change projections Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation multivariate models precipitation

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spelling	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)Bello-Jiménez, Brenda LilianaB. Raga, GracielaWurl, Jobsthydroclimatic extremesclimate change projectionsPacific Decadal OscillationEl Niño-Southern Oscillationmultivariate modelsprecipitationThis study focuses on identifying modulations by large-scale synoptic, inter-annual, and decadal oscillations on the extreme rainfall in the state of Baja California Sur, and provides statistical models to forecast future evolution. The region is arid, with 70% of precipitation from July to October, and is affected by tropical systems that may lead to moderate and even intense precipitation. Seven clusters were obtained using the Ward method applied to quality-controlled climatological data from 1950 to 2014. Normalized extreme precipitation (95th percentile) shows an overall increase in the last decades (1995-2004 and 2005-2014), with total values much larger than in any of the previous 50 years. Multivariate linear models (MLMs) were developed based on indices for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Region 3.4, which were shown to modulate extreme precipitation. The MLM based on PDO, ENSO, and the fraction of tropical cyclones (TC) within a radius of 300 km to the peninsula (M4), has a better correlation with observed rainfall than the historical simulations of the Coupled-Model Inter-comparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models; moreover, M4 outperforms all other MLMs in six of the seven clusters. Projections were evaluated based on the MLMs and CMIP5 simulations under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid- and long-term horizons. Model M4 projects more extreme events than CMIP5, and all MLM projects negative trends in extreme precipitation from 2041 to 2100 under RCP8.5. This study provides valuable information on future extreme precipitation in an arid region in the presence of steep topography, which could result in potential damage to ecosystems and infrastructure.Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México2024-04-26info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontexttext/htmlapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/5333510.20937/ATM.53335Atmósfera; Vol. 38 (2024); 571-594Atmósfera; Vol. 38 (2024); 571-5942395-88120187-6236reponame:Atmósferainstname:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICOinstacron:UNAMenghttps://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335/47035https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335/47034Copyright (c) 2024 Atmósferahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/533352024-08-16T16:52:42Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
title	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
spellingShingle	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci) Bello-Jiménez, Brenda Liliana hydroclimatic extremes climate change projections Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation multivariate models precipitation
title_short	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
title_full	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
title_fullStr	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
title_full_unstemmed	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
title_sort	Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv	Bello-Jiménez, Brenda Liliana B. Raga, Graciela Wurl, Jobst
author	Bello-Jiménez, Brenda Liliana
author_facet	Bello-Jiménez, Brenda Liliana B. Raga, Graciela Wurl, Jobst
author_role	author
author2	B. Raga, Graciela Wurl, Jobst
author2_role	author author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv	hydroclimatic extremes climate change projections Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation multivariate models precipitation
topic	hydroclimatic extremes climate change projections Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation multivariate models precipitation
description	This study focuses on identifying modulations by large-scale synoptic, inter-annual, and decadal oscillations on the extreme rainfall in the state of Baja California Sur, and provides statistical models to forecast future evolution. The region is arid, with 70% of precipitation from July to October, and is affected by tropical systems that may lead to moderate and even intense precipitation. Seven clusters were obtained using the Ward method applied to quality-controlled climatological data from 1950 to 2014. Normalized extreme precipitation (95th percentile) shows an overall increase in the last decades (1995-2004 and 2005-2014), with total values much larger than in any of the previous 50 years. Multivariate linear models (MLMs) were developed based on indices for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Region 3.4, which were shown to modulate extreme precipitation. The MLM based on PDO, ENSO, and the fraction of tropical cyclones (TC) within a radius of 300 km to the peninsula (M4), has a better correlation with observed rainfall than the historical simulations of the Coupled-Model Inter-comparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models; moreover, M4 outperforms all other MLMs in six of the seven clusters. Projections were evaluated based on the MLMs and CMIP5 simulations under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid- and long-term horizons. Model M4 projects more extreme events than CMIP5, and all MLM projects negative trends in extreme precipitation from 2041 to 2100 under RCP8.5. This study provides valuable information on future extreme precipitation in an arid region in the presence of steep topography, which could result in potential damage to ecosystems and infrastructure.
publishDate	2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv	2024-04-26
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion text
format	article
status_str	publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv	https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335 10.20937/ATM.53335
url	https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335
identifier_str_mv	10.20937/ATM.53335
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv	eng
language	eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv	https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335/47035 https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53335/47034
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv	Copyright (c) 2024 Atmósfera http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv	Copyright (c) 2024 Atmósfera http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv	openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv	text/html application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv	Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
publisher.none.fl_str_mv	Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv	Atmósfera; Vol. 38 (2024); 571-594 Atmósfera; Vol. 38 (2024); 571-594 2395-8812 0187-6236 reponame:Atmósfera instname:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO instacron:UNAM
instname_str	UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
instacron_str	UNAM
institution	UNAM
reponame_str	Atmósfera
collection	Atmósfera
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur (edited by Dr. Matilde Rusticucci)

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