Hydrologic modeling to measure the impact of climate change in the Yaqui River basin

Introduction: Changes in climate patterns threaten water security of the population and its economic activities.Objective: To model and analyze the behavior of surface runoff in the Yaqui river basin under climate change scenarios.Methodology: Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of three sub...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Alejandro Cruz-González, Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen, Maritza Argelia Macías-Corral, Miguel Agustín Velásquez-Valle, Ricardo Trejo-Calzada
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:México
Institución:Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila
Repositorio:Redalyc-UADEC
OAI Identifier:oai:redalyc.org:688672120005
Acceso en línea:https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=688672120005
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/6886/688672120005/
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/6886/688672120005/html/
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/6886/688672120005/688672120005.epub
https://www.redalyc.org/journal/6886/688672120005/movil
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Multidisciplinaria (Ciencias Naturales y Exactas)
RCP
SWAT model
surface runoff
Descripción
Sumario:Introduction: Changes in climate patterns threaten water security of the population and its economic activities.Objective: To model and analyze the behavior of surface runoff in the Yaqui river basin under climate change scenarios.Methodology: Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of three sub-basins (La Angostura, El Novillo and El Oviachic) were shown using hydrologic modeling with SWAT, where the simulated variable was surface runoff.Results: A change in water availability of -67 % is expected in La Angostura for the period 2021-2040 (RCP2.6) and an increase of 60 % from 2041-2060 (RCP8.5), in El Novillo a decrease of 65 % is predicted for the period 2061-2080 (RCP4. 5) and a 42 % increase from 2061-2080 (RCP2.6), and in El Oviachic a 63 % decrease is predicted for the period 2041-2060 (RCP2.6 and 4.5) and a 47 % increase from 2041-2060 (RCP4.5).Limitations: Veracity and impact of basins studies depend on quality hydro-climatic information of unrestricted availability.Originality: The impact of climate change on the availability of water for agricultural use in the Yaqui River basin was projected. In addition, there is a technological platform for planning processes.Conclusions: The data collected can be used to generate adaptation and mitigation strategies for efficient water use in the basin and to propose long-term sustainable management alternatives.