Modeling of land use/cover changes: prospective scenarios in the Estado de Mexico. Case study – Amanalco de Becerra

The aim of this study is to assess the dynamics and processes of change that haveoccurred in the municipality of Amanalco de Becerra, State of Mexico, through theconstruction of a spatially explanatory model of land use/cover changes (LUCC). Themodeling process was carried out using DINAMICA EGO, a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: José M. Camacho-Sanabria, José I. Juan-Pérez, Noel B. Pineda-Jaimes
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:México
Institución:Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
Repositorio:Redalyc-UAEMEX
OAI Identifier:oai:redalyc.org:62941169005
Acceso en línea:https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=62941169005
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Agrociencias
DINAMICA EGO
spatial model
rates of change
Descripción
Sumario:The aim of this study is to assess the dynamics and processes of change that haveoccurred in the municipality of Amanalco de Becerra, State of Mexico, through theconstruction of a spatially explanatory model of land use/cover changes (LUCC). Themodeling process was carried out using DINAMICA EGO, a mapping tool. Land use/covermaps for the years 1989, 1997 and 2009, as well as various explanatory physical-geographical,environmental and land tenure proximity variables, were used as map inputs. The LUCC for2020 were modelled under two scenarios: 1) the trend model, which assumes that the annualchange rates for the period 1997-2009 remain unaltered, and 2) the agropastoral model,which assumes that annual deforestation rates increase because of the establishment anddevelopment of farming activities. The analysis of the absolute values of the forest category,for each year, shows a trend towards the loss of forest cover; by contrast, the annual ratesof change in the forest category show a trend towards recovery-revegetation-reforestationprocesses, as a result of the implementation of government environmental programs.