Modeling of land use/cover changes: prospective scenarios in the Estado de Mexico. Case study – Amanalco de Becerra
The aim of this study is to assess the dynamics and processes of change that haveoccurred in the municipality of Amanalco de Becerra, State of Mexico, through theconstruction of a spatially explanatory model of land use/cover changes (LUCC). Themodeling process was carried out using DINAMICA EGO, a...
| Autores: | , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2015 |
| País: | México |
| Institución: | Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México |
| Repositorio: | Redalyc-UAEMEX |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:redalyc.org:62941169005 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=62941169005 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Agrociencias DINAMICA EGO spatial model rates of change |
| Sumario: | The aim of this study is to assess the dynamics and processes of change that haveoccurred in the municipality of Amanalco de Becerra, State of Mexico, through theconstruction of a spatially explanatory model of land use/cover changes (LUCC). Themodeling process was carried out using DINAMICA EGO, a mapping tool. Land use/covermaps for the years 1989, 1997 and 2009, as well as various explanatory physical-geographical,environmental and land tenure proximity variables, were used as map inputs. The LUCC for2020 were modelled under two scenarios: 1) the trend model, which assumes that the annualchange rates for the period 1997-2009 remain unaltered, and 2) the agropastoral model,which assumes that annual deforestation rates increase because of the establishment anddevelopment of farming activities. The analysis of the absolute values of the forest category,for each year, shows a trend towards the loss of forest cover; by contrast, the annual ratesof change in the forest category show a trend towards recovery-revegetation-reforestationprocesses, as a result of the implementation of government environmental programs. |
|---|