Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture

Many assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 d...

ver descrição completa

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Aggarwal, P.K., Vyas, S., Thornton, P., Campbell, B.M., Kropff, Martinus
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:México
Recursos:Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo
Repositorio:Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYT
OAI Identifier:oai:repository.cimmyt.org:10883/20158
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20158
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
Impacts
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
CROP YIELD
id MX_4d9ba62efe285dc2b501b16e5f17c1ec
oai_identifier_str oai:repository.cimmyt.org:10883/20158
network_acronym_str MX
network_name_str México
repository_id_str
spelling Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agricultureAggarwal, P.K.Vyas, S.Thornton, P.Campbell, B.M.Kropff, MartinusAGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGYImpactsCLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT ASSESSMENTTECHNOLOGYAGRICULTUREFOOD SECURITYCROP YIELDCLIMATE CHANGETECHNOLOGYAGRICULTUREFOOD SECURITYMany assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales.41-48Elsevier2019-06-13T16:35:12Z2019-06-13T16:35:12Z2019Published Versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlePDFapplication/pdf2211-9124ISSN: 2211-9124https://hdl.handle.net/10883/2015810.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.00223Global Food Securityreponame:Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYTinstname:Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigoinstacron:CIMMYTEnglishAmsterdam (Netherlands)CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the sutable license for that purpose.Open Accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repository.cimmyt.org:10883/201582024-10-11T19:56:39Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
title Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
spellingShingle Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
Aggarwal, P.K.
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
Impacts
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
CROP YIELD
CLIMATE CHANGE
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
title_short Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
title_full Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
title_fullStr Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
title_full_unstemmed Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
title_sort Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aggarwal, P.K.
Vyas, S.
Thornton, P.
Campbell, B.M.
Kropff, Martinus
author Aggarwal, P.K.
author_facet Aggarwal, P.K.
Vyas, S.
Thornton, P.
Campbell, B.M.
Kropff, Martinus
author_role author
author2 Vyas, S.
Thornton, P.
Campbell, B.M.
Kropff, Martinus
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
Impacts
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
CROP YIELD
CLIMATE CHANGE
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
topic AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
Impacts
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
CROP YIELD
CLIMATE CHANGE
TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
description Many assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-06-13T16:35:12Z
2019-06-13T16:35:12Z
2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Published Version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv 2211-9124
ISSN: 2211-9124
https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20158
10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.002
identifier_str_mv 2211-9124
ISSN: 2211-9124
10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.002
url https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20158
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv English
language_invalid_str_mv English
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Open Access
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Open Access
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv PDF
application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Amsterdam (Netherlands)
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv 23
Global Food Security
reponame:Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYT
instname:Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo
instacron:CIMMYT
instname_str Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo
instacron_str CIMMYT
institution CIMMYT
reponame_str Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYT
collection Repositorio Institucional de Publicaciones Multimedia del CIMMYT
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1858175199604637696
score 15,812429

Registos relacionados