Once upon a time there was a Trump effect. Internet information and the exchange rate

Using official data (Banco de M´exico, INEGI) and large-scale information from the Internet (Google Trends, Twitter), a VAR model and Granger causality tests are used to model the behavior of the peso/dollar exchange rate. Trump’s online popularity, along with messages on Twitter regarding the relat...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Ibarra López, Ignacio, Cortés Moreno, Jorge David
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2021
Country:México
Institution:EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO
Repository:Estudios Económicos de El Colegio de México
Language:Spanish
OAI Identifier:oai:oai.estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx:article/423
Online Access:https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/423
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Big Data
Trump
Twitter
NAFTA
Foreign exchange
F31
F470
C89
tipo de cambio
TLCAN
Description
Summary:Using official data (Banco de M´exico, INEGI) and large-scale information from the Internet (Google Trends, Twitter), a VAR model and Granger causality tests are used to model the behavior of the peso/dollar exchange rate. Trump’s online popularity, along with messages on Twitter regarding the relationship between Mexico and the United States, generated a feeling of concern which was reflected in the exchange rate, at least in the short term. The main learning derived from these findings is that the information generated in social networks allows us to know the behavior of fundamental economic variables.