Uncertainties in volcanic plume modeling: A parametric study using FPLUME
We carry out a parametric study in order to identify and quantify the effects of uncertainties on pivotal parameters controlling the dynamics of volcanic plumes. The study builds upon numerical simulations using FPLUME, an integral steady-state model based on the Buoyant Plume Theory generalized in...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/88831 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/88831 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.03.016 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Simulation and Modeling Volcanic activity prediction Volcanic plumes Buoyant Plume Theory FPLUME Uncertainty Simulació per ordinador Activitat volcànica--Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria química |
| Sumario: | We carry out a parametric study in order to identify and quantify the effects of uncertainties on pivotal parameters controlling the dynamics of volcanic plumes. The study builds upon numerical simulations using FPLUME, an integral steady-state model based on the Buoyant Plume Theory generalized in order to account for volcanic processes (particle fallout and re-entrainment, water phase changes, effects of wind, etc). As reference cases for strong and weak plumes, we consider the cases defined during the IAVCEI Commission on tephra hazard modeling inter-comparison study (Costa et al., 2016). The parametric study quantifies the effect of typical uncertainties on total mass eruption rate, column height, mixture exit velocity, temperature and water content, and particle size. Moreover, a sensitivity study investigates the role of wind entrainment and intensity, atmospheric humidity, water phase changes, and particle fallout and re-entrainment. Results show that the leading-order parameters that control plume height are the mass eruption rate and the air entrainment coefficient, especially for weak plumes. |
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