Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach

Flight delays are one of the most discussed, yet not fully understood, topics in the aviation industry. In this paper, we shed more light into propagation of flight delays by providing a spatio-temporal analysis of flight departure delays of the US domestic air network for the year 2017. The analysi...

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Authors: Bombelli, Alessandro, Sallán Leyes, José María|||0000-0002-4835-0152
Format: article
Publication Date:2023
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repository:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/383666
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/383666
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103541
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Network analysis (Planning)
Aeronautics, Commercial -- Planning
Weather
Delay propagation network
Cancellation propagation network
US domestic air network
Granger causality
Network theory
Extreme weather
Anàlisi de xarxes (Planificació)
Aviació comercial -- Planificació
Temps (Meteorologia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Infraestructures i modelització dels transports::Infraestructures i transport aeri
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approachBombelli, AlessandroSallán Leyes, José María|||0000-0002-4835-0152Network analysis (Planning)Aeronautics, Commercial -- PlanningWeatherDelay propagation networkCancellation propagation networkUS domestic air networkGranger causalityNetwork theoryExtreme weatherAnàlisi de xarxes (Planificació)Aviació comercial -- PlanificacióTemps (Meteorologia)Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Infraestructures i modelització dels transports::Infraestructures i transport aeriÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logísticaFlight delays are one of the most discussed, yet not fully understood, topics in the aviation industry. In this paper, we shed more light into propagation of flight delays by providing a spatio-temporal analysis of flight departure delays of the US domestic air network for the year 2017. The analysis focuses on four US air carriers (full-service and low-cost) and two time events characterized by extreme weather conditions, in addition to a baseline case free of extreme weather conditions. We constructed a Delay Propagation Network (DPN) for each (time event, airline) pair detecting patterns of causality between hourly delays in airports using a Granger Causality approach. In addition, we identified four (time event, airline) pairs with a volume of cancellations large enough to construct a Cancellation Propagation Network (CPN), analogously to DPNs. For the baseline case, we observed that central nodes of the airport network (i.e., hubs) usually act as absorbers or intermediary nodes in the DPN. DPNs were more homogeneously distributed in space for point-to-point than for hub-and-spoke networks. For extreme weather events, we observed that the size of a DPN increases with the percentage of canceled flights as long as this stays below 10\%. Conversely, it suddenly decreases when the percentage exceeds such tipping point because most causal relationships among delays are lost due to the volume of cancellations. We also observed that some airports located in the region of the extreme weather event were among the central nodes of the DPN. Those airports, together with the hub airports, acted as the top generators, absorbers, or intermediary nodes of the DPN. On the other hand, CPNs monotonously increased in size with the proportion of canceled flights. CPNs are less noisy and therefore easier to interpret than DPNs, as cancellations stem primarily from the extreme weather event only. In CPNs, hubs act as cancellation absorbers, due to the larger volume of resources that airlines allocate there.Peer Reviewed20232023-02-0120232023-02-17journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/383666https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103541reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3836662026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
title Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
spellingShingle Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
Bombelli, Alessandro
Network analysis (Planning)
Aeronautics, Commercial -- Planning
Weather
Delay propagation network
Cancellation propagation network
US domestic air network
Granger causality
Network theory
Extreme weather
Anàlisi de xarxes (Planificació)
Aviació comercial -- Planificació
Temps (Meteorologia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Infraestructures i modelització dels transports::Infraestructures i transport aeri
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
title_short Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
title_full Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
title_fullStr Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
title_sort Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bombelli, Alessandro
Sallán Leyes, José María|||0000-0002-4835-0152
author Bombelli, Alessandro
author_facet Bombelli, Alessandro
Sallán Leyes, José María|||0000-0002-4835-0152
author_role author
author2 Sallán Leyes, José María|||0000-0002-4835-0152
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Network analysis (Planning)
Aeronautics, Commercial -- Planning
Weather
Delay propagation network
Cancellation propagation network
US domestic air network
Granger causality
Network theory
Extreme weather
Anàlisi de xarxes (Planificació)
Aviació comercial -- Planificació
Temps (Meteorologia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Infraestructures i modelització dels transports::Infraestructures i transport aeri
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
topic Network analysis (Planning)
Aeronautics, Commercial -- Planning
Weather
Delay propagation network
Cancellation propagation network
US domestic air network
Granger causality
Network theory
Extreme weather
Anàlisi de xarxes (Planificació)
Aviació comercial -- Planificació
Temps (Meteorologia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Infraestructures i modelització dels transports::Infraestructures i transport aeri
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
description Flight delays are one of the most discussed, yet not fully understood, topics in the aviation industry. In this paper, we shed more light into propagation of flight delays by providing a spatio-temporal analysis of flight departure delays of the US domestic air network for the year 2017. The analysis focuses on four US air carriers (full-service and low-cost) and two time events characterized by extreme weather conditions, in addition to a baseline case free of extreme weather conditions. We constructed a Delay Propagation Network (DPN) for each (time event, airline) pair detecting patterns of causality between hourly delays in airports using a Granger Causality approach. In addition, we identified four (time event, airline) pairs with a volume of cancellations large enough to construct a Cancellation Propagation Network (CPN), analogously to DPNs. For the baseline case, we observed that central nodes of the airport network (i.e., hubs) usually act as absorbers or intermediary nodes in the DPN. DPNs were more homogeneously distributed in space for point-to-point than for hub-and-spoke networks. For extreme weather events, we observed that the size of a DPN increases with the percentage of canceled flights as long as this stays below 10\%. Conversely, it suddenly decreases when the percentage exceeds such tipping point because most causal relationships among delays are lost due to the volume of cancellations. We also observed that some airports located in the region of the extreme weather event were among the central nodes of the DPN. Those airports, together with the hub airports, acted as the top generators, absorbers, or intermediary nodes of the DPN. On the other hand, CPNs monotonously increased in size with the proportion of canceled flights. CPNs are less noisy and therefore easier to interpret than DPNs, as cancellations stem primarily from the extreme weather event only. In CPNs, hubs act as cancellation absorbers, due to the larger volume of resources that airlines allocate there.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-02-01
2023
2023-02-17
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/383666
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103541
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/383666
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103541
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300719

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