Nonparametric Estimation of Extreme Quantiles with an Application to Longevity Risk
A new method to estimate longevity risk based on the kernel estimation of the extreme quantiles of truncated age-at-death distributions is proposed. Its theoretical properties are presented and a simulation study is reported. The flexible yet accurate estimation of extreme quantiles of age-at-death...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| Repositorio: | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:recercat.cat:2445/183149 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/183149 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Risc (Assegurances) Risc (Economia) Estadística no paramètrica Longevitat Distribució (Teoria econòmica) Risk (Insurance) Risk Nonparametric statistics Longevity Distribution (Economic theory) |
| Sumario: | A new method to estimate longevity risk based on the kernel estimation of the extreme quantiles of truncated age-at-death distributions is proposed. Its theoretical properties are presented and a simulation study is reported. The flexible yet accurate estimation of extreme quantiles of age-at-death conditional on having survived a certain age is fundamental for evaluating the risk of lifetime insurance. Our proposal combines a parametric distributions with nonparametric sample information, leading to obtain an asymptotic unbiased estimator of extreme quantiles for alternative distributions with different right tail shape, i.e., heavy tail or exponential tail. A method for estimating the longevity risk of a continuous temporary annuity is also shown. We illustrate our proposal with an application to the official age-at-death statistics of the population in Spain. |
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