Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear
Biotic interactions are expected to influence species' responses to global changes, but they are rarely considered across broad spatial extents. Abiotic factors are thought to operate at larger spatial scales, while biotic factors, such as species interactions, are considered more important at...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
| Repositorio: | DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:digital.csic.es:10261/399234 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/399234 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105007290396 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Ursus arctos Climate change Community Ecosystem Food web Habitat Human impact Land use Predator-prey Species distribution model |
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| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| title |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| spellingShingle |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear Lucas, Pablo M. Ursus arctos Climate change Community Ecosystem Food web Habitat Human impact Land use Predator-prey Species distribution model |
| title_short |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| title_full |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| title_fullStr |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| title_sort |
Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Lucas, Pablo M. Thuiller, Wilfried Talluto, Lauren Polaina, Ester Albrecht, Jörg Selva, Nuria Barba, Marta de Penteriani, Vincenzo Guéguen, Maya Balkenhol, Niko Dutta, Trishna Fedorca, Ancuta Frank, Shane C. Zedrosser, Andreas Afonso-Jordana, Ivan Ambarlı, Hüseyin Ballesteros, Fernando Bashta, Andriy-Taras Bilgin, Cemal Can Bogdanović, Neda Bojārs, Edgars Bojarska, Katarzyna Bragalanti, Natalia Brøseth, Henrik Chynoweth, Mark W. Ćirović, Duško Ciucci, Paolo Corradini, Andrea De Angelis, Daniele Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de Domokos, Csaba Dutsov, Aleksander Ertürk, Alper Filacorda, Stefano Frangini, Lorenzo Groff, Claudio Heikkinen, Samuli Hoxha, Bledi Huber, Djuro Huitu, Otso Ionescu, Georgeta Ionescu, Ovidiu Jerina, Klemen Jurj, Ramon Karamanlidis, Alexandros A. Kindberg, Jonas Kojola, Ilpo López-Bao, José V. Männil, Peep Melovski, Dime Mertzanis, Yorgos Molinari, Paolo Molinari-Jobin, Anja Mustoni, Andrea Naves, Javier Ogurtsov, Sergey Özüt, Deniz Palazón, Santiago Pedrotti, Luca Perović, Aleksandar Piminov, Vladimir N. Pop, Ioan-Mihai Popa, Marius Psaralexi, Maria Quenette, Pierre-Yves Rauer, Georg Reljic, Slaven Revilla, Eloy Saarma, Urmas Saveljev, Alexander P. Sayar, Ali Onur Şekercioğlu, Çagan H. Sergiel, Agnieszka Sîrbu, George Skrbinšek, Tomaž Skuban, Michaela Soyumert, Anil Stojanov, Aleksandar Tammeleht, Egle Tirronen, Konstantin Trajçe, Aleksandër Trbojević, Igor Trbojević, Tijana Zięba, Filip Zlatanova, Diana Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz Pollock, Laura J. |
| author |
Lucas, Pablo M. |
| author_facet |
Lucas, Pablo M. Thuiller, Wilfried Talluto, Lauren Polaina, Ester Albrecht, Jörg Selva, Nuria Barba, Marta de Penteriani, Vincenzo Guéguen, Maya Balkenhol, Niko Dutta, Trishna Fedorca, Ancuta Frank, Shane C. Zedrosser, Andreas Afonso-Jordana, Ivan Ambarlı, Hüseyin Ballesteros, Fernando Bashta, Andriy-Taras Bilgin, Cemal Can Bogdanović, Neda Bojārs, Edgars Bojarska, Katarzyna Bragalanti, Natalia Brøseth, Henrik Chynoweth, Mark W. Ćirović, Duško Ciucci, Paolo Corradini, Andrea De Angelis, Daniele Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de Domokos, Csaba Dutsov, Aleksander Ertürk, Alper Filacorda, Stefano Frangini, Lorenzo Groff, Claudio Heikkinen, Samuli Hoxha, Bledi Huber, Djuro Huitu, Otso Ionescu, Georgeta Ionescu, Ovidiu Jerina, Klemen Jurj, Ramon Karamanlidis, Alexandros A. Kindberg, Jonas Kojola, Ilpo López-Bao, José V. Männil, Peep Melovski, Dime Mertzanis, Yorgos Molinari, Paolo Molinari-Jobin, Anja Mustoni, Andrea Naves, Javier Ogurtsov, Sergey Özüt, Deniz Palazón, Santiago Pedrotti, Luca Perović, Aleksandar Piminov, Vladimir N. Pop, Ioan-Mihai Popa, Marius Psaralexi, Maria Quenette, Pierre-Yves Rauer, Georg Reljic, Slaven Revilla, Eloy Saarma, Urmas Saveljev, Alexander P. Sayar, Ali Onur Şekercioğlu, Çagan H. Sergiel, Agnieszka Sîrbu, George Skrbinšek, Tomaž Skuban, Michaela Soyumert, Anil Stojanov, Aleksandar Tammeleht, Egle Tirronen, Konstantin Trajçe, Aleksandër Trbojević, Igor Trbojević, Tijana Zięba, Filip Zlatanova, Diana Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz Pollock, Laura J. |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Thuiller, Wilfried Talluto, Lauren Polaina, Ester Albrecht, Jörg Selva, Nuria Barba, Marta de Penteriani, Vincenzo Guéguen, Maya Balkenhol, Niko Dutta, Trishna Fedorca, Ancuta Frank, Shane C. Zedrosser, Andreas Afonso-Jordana, Ivan Ambarlı, Hüseyin Ballesteros, Fernando Bashta, Andriy-Taras Bilgin, Cemal Can Bogdanović, Neda Bojārs, Edgars Bojarska, Katarzyna Bragalanti, Natalia Brøseth, Henrik Chynoweth, Mark W. Ćirović, Duško Ciucci, Paolo Corradini, Andrea De Angelis, Daniele Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de Domokos, Csaba Dutsov, Aleksander Ertürk, Alper Filacorda, Stefano Frangini, Lorenzo Groff, Claudio Heikkinen, Samuli Hoxha, Bledi Huber, Djuro Huitu, Otso Ionescu, Georgeta Ionescu, Ovidiu Jerina, Klemen Jurj, Ramon Karamanlidis, Alexandros A. Kindberg, Jonas Kojola, Ilpo López-Bao, José V. Männil, Peep Melovski, Dime Mertzanis, Yorgos Molinari, Paolo Molinari-Jobin, Anja Mustoni, Andrea Naves, Javier Ogurtsov, Sergey Özüt, Deniz Palazón, Santiago Pedrotti, Luca Perović, Aleksandar Piminov, Vladimir N. Pop, Ioan-Mihai Popa, Marius Psaralexi, Maria Quenette, Pierre-Yves Rauer, Georg Reljic, Slaven Revilla, Eloy Saarma, Urmas Saveljev, Alexander P. Sayar, Ali Onur Şekercioğlu, Çagan H. Sergiel, Agnieszka Sîrbu, George Skrbinšek, Tomaž Skuban, Michaela Soyumert, Anil Stojanov, Aleksandar Tammeleht, Egle Tirronen, Konstantin Trajçe, Aleksandër Trbojević, Igor Trbojević, Tijana Zięba, Filip Zlatanova, Diana Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz Pollock, Laura J. |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
BiodivERsA National Science Centre (Poland) Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Junta de Andalucía Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France) Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany) Research Council of Norway National Geographic Society University of Utah Columbus Zoo and Aquarium Ministry of Education and Research (Estonia) Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (The Netherlands) Austrian Science Fund World Wildlife Fund MAVA Foundation pour la Nature Principado de Asturias United Nations Nature Conservation Centre (Türkiye) Vodafone Kastamonu University Arcturos Swedish Environmental Protection Agency European Commission Regione Autonoma Friuli Venezia Giulia Fondation Segré International Association for Bear Research and Management Bernd Thies Foundation General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks of Türkiye The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye Frankfurt Zoological Society Wildlife Foundation Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico (España) Russian Science Foundation Ministry of Rural Development and Food (Greece) Nando and Elsa Peretti Foundation Romanian Academy The Sigrid Rausing Trust Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs (Türkiye) Ministry of Education and Science (Serbia) Hacettepe University Polish Academy of Sciences Norwegian Research Council Whitley Fund for Nature Christensen Fund Slovenian Research Agency Fresno Chaffe Zoo Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry German Centre for Air and Space Travel Lucas, Pablo M. [0000-0003-4517-9748] Thuiller, Wilfried [0000-0002-5388-5274] Talluto, Lauren [0000-0001-5188-7332] Polaina, Ester [0000-0002-5064-5881] Albrecht, Jörg [0000-0002-9708-9413] Selva, Nuria [0000-0003-3389-201X] Barba, Marta de [0000-0002-2979-3716] Penteriani, Vincenzo [0000-0002-9333-7846] Guéguen, Maya [0000-0002-1045-2997] Balkenhol, Niko [0000-0003-4921-5443] Dutta, Trishna [0000-0002-5236-2658] Fedorca, Ancuta [0000-0001-5828-5422] Frank, Shane C. [0000-0001-8153-6656] Zedrosser, Andreas [0000-0003-4417-3037] Ambarlı, Hüseyin [0000-0003-4336-9417] Ballesteros, Fernando [0000-0003-4764-4041] Bashta, Andriy-Taras [0000-0002-8134-5507] Bilgin, Cemal Can [0000-0001-9284-307X] Bogdanović, Neda [0000-0002-3782-6602] Bojarska, Katarzyna [0000-0001-7872-5763] Brøseth, Henrik [0000-0003-3795-891X] Chynoweth, Mark W. [0000-0001-9203-8193] Ćirović, Duško [0000-0001-9468-0948] Ciucci, Paolo [0000-0002-0994-3422] Corradini, Andrea [0000-0002-9294-656X] De Angelis, Daniele [0000-0002-2529-6210] Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de [0000-0002-8722-6146] Domokos, Csaba [0000-0002-9973-7779] Ertürk, Alper [0000-0001-5498-3856] Filacorda, Stefano [0000-0002-0984-2373] Frangini, Lorenzo [0000-0002-1281-0188] Huber, Djuro [0000-0002-3912-3812] Huitu, Otso [0000-0003-3829-1213] Jerina, Klemen [0000-0003-3946-2678] Karamanlidis, Alexandros A. [0000-0003-0943-1619] Kindberg, Jonas [0000-0003-1445-4524] Kojola, Ilpo [0000-0003-2866-5090] López-Bao, José V. [0000-0001-9213-998X] Männil, Peep [0009-0006-5217-2535] Melovski, Dime [0000-0002-1072-6978] Molinari-Jobin, Anja [0000-0002-3729-2532] Naves, Javier [0000-0003-3773-0288] Ogurtsov, Sergey [0000-0002-0859-8954] Özüt, Deniz [0000-0002-6692-7533] Piminov, Vladimir N. [0009-0008-5092-1314] Pop, Ioan-Mihai [0000-0001-9706-3697] Psaralexi, Maria [0000-0002-0220-8855] Reljic, Slaven [0000-0002-8110-384X] Revilla, Eloy [0000-0001-5534-5581] Saarma, Urmas [0000-0002-3222-571X] Saveljev, Alexander P. [0000-0002-8103-5787] Sayar, Ali Onur [0000-0001-6000-2946] Şekercioğlu, Çagan H. [0000-0003-3193-0377] Sergiel, Agnieszka [0000-0002-3455-4218] Skrbinšek, Tomaž [0000-0003-4435-7477] Soyumert, Anil [0000-0003-0196-9617] Tammeleht, Egle [0000-0003-0871-051X] Tirronen, Konstantin [0000-0002-8208-5460] Trajçe, Aleksandër [0000-0002-6815-7421] Trbojević, Igor [0000-0003-0781-7235] Zlatanova, Diana [0000-0002-4115-2786] Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72] |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Ursus arctos Climate change Community Ecosystem Food web Habitat Human impact Land use Predator-prey Species distribution model |
| topic |
Ursus arctos Climate change Community Ecosystem Food web Habitat Human impact Land use Predator-prey Species distribution model |
| description |
Biotic interactions are expected to influence species' responses to global changes, but they are rarely considered across broad spatial extents. Abiotic factors are thought to operate at larger spatial scales, while biotic factors, such as species interactions, are considered more important at local scales within communities, in part because of the knowledge gap on species interactions at large spatial scales (i.e., the Eltonian shortfall). We assessed, at a continental scale, (i) the importance of biotic interactions, through food webs, on species distributions, and (ii) how biotic interactions under scenarios of climate and land-use change may affect the distribution of the brown bear (Ursus arctos). We built a highly detailed, spatially dynamic, and empirically sampled food web based on the energy contribution of 276 brown bear food species from different taxa (plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates) and their ensemble habitat models at high resolution across Europe. Then, combining energy contribution and predicted habitat of food species, we modelled energy contribution across space and included these layers within Bayesian-based models of the brown bear distribution in Europe. The inclusion of biotic interactions considerably improved our understanding of brown bear distribution at large (continental) scales compared with Bayesian models including only abiotic factors (climate and land use). Predicted future range shifts, which included changes in the distribution of food species, varied greatly when considering various scenarios of change in biotic factors, providing a warning that future indirect climate and land-use change are likely to have strong but highly uncertain impacts on species biogeography. Our study confirmed that advancing our understanding of ecological networks of species interactions will improve future projections of biodiversity change, especially for modelling species distributions and their functional role under climate and land-use change scenarios, which is key for effective conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. |
| publishDate |
2025 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2025 2025 2025 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Publisher's version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10261/399234 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105007290396 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10261/399234 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105007290396 |
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Inglés |
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Inglés |
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#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-114181GB-I00 The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70252 Lucas, Pablo M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Talluto, Lauren; Polaina, Ester; Albrecht, Jörg; Selva, Nuria; Barba, Marta de; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Guéguen, Maya; Balkenhol, Niko; Dutta, Trishna; Fedorca, Ancuta; Frank, Shane C.; Zedrosser, Andreas; Afonso-Jordana, Ivan; Ambarlı, Hüseyin; Ballesteros, Fernando; Bashta, Andriy-Taras; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Bogdanović, Neda; Bojārs, Edgars; Bojarska, Katarzyna; Bragalanti, Natalia; Brøseth, Henrik; Chynoweth, Mark W.; Ćirović, Duško; Ciucci, Paolo; Corradini, Andrea; De Angelis, Daniele; Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de; Domokos, Csaba; Dutsov, Aleksander; Ertürk, Alper; Filacorda, Stefano; Frangini, Lorenzo; Groff, Claudio; Heikkinen, Samuli; Hoxha, Bledi; Huber, Djuro; Huitu, Otso; Ionescu, Georgeta; Ionescu, Ovidiu; Jerina, Klemen; Jurj, Ramon; Karamanlidis, Alexandros A.; Kindberg, Jonas; Kojola, Ilpo; López-Bao, José V.; Männil, Peep; Melovski, Dime; Mertzanis, Yorgos; Molinari, Paolo; Molinari-Jobin, Anja; Mustoni, Andrea; Naves, Javier; Ogurtsov, Sergey; Özüt, Deniz; Palazón, Santiago; Pedrotti, Luca; Perović, Aleksandar; Piminov, Vladimir N.; Pop, Ioan-Mihai; Popa, Marius; Psaralexi, Maria; Quenette, Pierre-Yves; Rauer, Georg; Reljic, Slaven; Revilla, Eloy; Saarma, Urmas; Saveljev, Alexander P.; Sayar, Ali Onur; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Sergiel, Agnieszka; Sîrbu, George; Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Skuban, Michaela; Soyumert, Anil; Stojanov, Aleksandar; Tammeleht, Egle; Tirronen, Konstantin; Trajçe, Aleksandër; Trbojević, Igor; Trbojević, Tijana; Zięba, Filip; Zlatanova, Diana; Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz; Pollock, Laura J.; 2025; Brown bear trophic interactions database [Dataset]; Zenodo; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15364702 Lucas, Pablo M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Talluto, Lauren; Polaina, Ester; Albrecht, Jörg; Selva, Nuria; Barba, Marta de; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Guéguen, Maya; Balkenhol, Niko; Dutta, Trishna; Fedorca, Ancuta; Frank, Shane C.; Zedrosser, Andreas; Afonso-Jordana, Ivan; Ambarlı, Hüseyin; Ballesteros, Fernando; Bashta, Andriy-Taras; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Bogdanović, Neda; Bojārs, Edgars; Bojarska, Katarzyna; Bragalanti, Natalia; Brøseth, Henrik; Chynoweth, Mark W.; Ćirović, Duško; Ciucci, Paolo; Corradini, Andrea; De Angelis, Daniele; Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de; Domokos, Csaba; Dutsov, Aleksander; Ertürk, Alper; Filacorda, Stefano; Frangini, Lorenzo; Groff, Claudio; Heikkinen, Samuli; Hoxha, Bledi; Huber, Djuro; Huitu, Otso; Ionescu, Georgeta; Ionescu, Ovidiu; Jerina, Klemen; Jurj, Ramon; Karamanlidis, Alexandros A.; Kindberg, Jonas; Kojola, Ilpo; López-Bao, José V.; Männil, Peep; Melovski, Dime; Mertzanis, Yorgos; Molinari, Paolo; Molinari-Jobin, Anja; Mustoni, Andrea; Naves, Javier; Ogurtsov, Sergey; Özüt, Deniz; Palazón, Santiago; Pedrotti, Luca; Perović, Aleksandar; Piminov, Vladimir N.; Pop, Ioan-Mihai; Popa, Marius; Psaralexi, Maria; Quenette, Pierre-Yves; Rauer, Georg; Reljic, Slaven; Revilla, Eloy; Saarma, Urmas; Saveljev, Alexander P.; Sayar, Ali Onur; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Sergiel, Agnieszka; Sîrbu, George; Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Skuban, Michaela; Soyumert, Anil; Stojanov, Aleksandar; Tammeleht, Egle; Tirronen, Konstantin; Trajçe, Aleksandër; Trbojević, Igor; Trbojević, Tijana; Zięba, Filip; Zlatanova, Diana; Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz; Pollock, Laura J.; 2025; Range Database [Dataset]; Zenodo; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15375279 Karger, Dirk N.; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen et al. ; 2018; Data from: Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas [Dataset]. Dryad; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.kd1d4 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70252 Sí |
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Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown BearLucas, Pablo M.Thuiller, WilfriedTalluto, LaurenPolaina, EsterAlbrecht, JörgSelva, NuriaBarba, Marta dePenteriani, VincenzoGuéguen, MayaBalkenhol, NikoDutta, TrishnaFedorca, AncutaFrank, Shane C.Zedrosser, AndreasAfonso-Jordana, IvanAmbarlı, HüseyinBallesteros, FernandoBashta, Andriy-TarasBilgin, Cemal CanBogdanović, NedaBojārs, EdgarsBojarska, KatarzynaBragalanti, NataliaBrøseth, HenrikChynoweth, Mark W.Ćirović, DuškoCiucci, PaoloCorradini, AndreaDe Angelis, DanieleGabriel Hernando, Miguel deDomokos, CsabaDutsov, AleksanderErtürk, AlperFilacorda, StefanoFrangini, LorenzoGroff, ClaudioHeikkinen, SamuliHoxha, BlediHuber, DjuroHuitu, OtsoIonescu, GeorgetaIonescu, OvidiuJerina, KlemenJurj, RamonKaramanlidis, Alexandros A.Kindberg, JonasKojola, IlpoLópez-Bao, José V.Männil, PeepMelovski, DimeMertzanis, YorgosMolinari, PaoloMolinari-Jobin, AnjaMustoni, AndreaNaves, JavierOgurtsov, SergeyÖzüt, DenizPalazón, SantiagoPedrotti, LucaPerović, AleksandarPiminov, Vladimir N.Pop, Ioan-MihaiPopa, MariusPsaralexi, MariaQuenette, Pierre-YvesRauer, GeorgReljic, SlavenRevilla, EloySaarma, UrmasSaveljev, Alexander P.Sayar, Ali OnurŞekercioğlu, Çagan H.Sergiel, AgnieszkaSîrbu, GeorgeSkrbinšek, TomažSkuban, MichaelaSoyumert, AnilStojanov, AleksandarTammeleht, EgleTirronen, KonstantinTrajçe, AleksandërTrbojević, IgorTrbojević, TijanaZięba, FilipZlatanova, DianaZwijacz-Kozica, TomaszPollock, Laura J.Ursus arctosClimate changeCommunityEcosystemFood webHabitatHuman impactLand usePredator-preySpecies distribution modelBiotic interactions are expected to influence species' responses to global changes, but they are rarely considered across broad spatial extents. Abiotic factors are thought to operate at larger spatial scales, while biotic factors, such as species interactions, are considered more important at local scales within communities, in part because of the knowledge gap on species interactions at large spatial scales (i.e., the Eltonian shortfall). We assessed, at a continental scale, (i) the importance of biotic interactions, through food webs, on species distributions, and (ii) how biotic interactions under scenarios of climate and land-use change may affect the distribution of the brown bear (Ursus arctos). We built a highly detailed, spatially dynamic, and empirically sampled food web based on the energy contribution of 276 brown bear food species from different taxa (plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates) and their ensemble habitat models at high resolution across Europe. Then, combining energy contribution and predicted habitat of food species, we modelled energy contribution across space and included these layers within Bayesian-based models of the brown bear distribution in Europe. The inclusion of biotic interactions considerably improved our understanding of brown bear distribution at large (continental) scales compared with Bayesian models including only abiotic factors (climate and land use). Predicted future range shifts, which included changes in the distribution of food species, varied greatly when considering various scenarios of change in biotic factors, providing a warning that future indirect climate and land-use change are likely to have strong but highly uncertain impacts on species biogeography. Our study confirmed that advancing our understanding of ecological networks of species interactions will improve future projections of biodiversity change, especially for modelling species distributions and their functional role under climate and land-use change scenarios, which is key for effective conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.This work was supported by 2015-2016 BiodivERsA COFUND call (147), Narodowe Centrum Nauki (2016/22/Z/NZ8/00121), Ministerio de ciencia innovación y universidades/Agencia estatal de investigación (CNS2022-136018 and PID2020-114181GB-I00), European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR (CNS2022-136018), Junta de Andalucía (EMERGIA20_00135), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR16-EBI3-0003), Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LC1614A), Colegiul Consultativ pentru Cercetare-Dezvoltare şi Inovare (BiodivERsA3-2015-147-BearConnect 96/2016), Norwegian Research Council (RCN) (269863), Balkan Lynx Recovery Programme, National Geographic Society, University of Utah, Columbus Zoo and Aquarium (USA), Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (PRG1209), Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, Austrian Science Fund, WWF Adria, MAVA Foundation, Gobierno del Principado de Asturias, UNDP Small Grants Programme, The Nature Conservation Centre, Vodafone, Kastamonu Üniversitesi, United Nations GEF-5 Programme, ARCTUROS, Civil Society for the Protection and Management of Wildlife and the Natural Environment, Naturvårdsverket, The Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Project, The European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) (PID2020-114181GB-I00), Regione Autonoma Friuli Venezia Giulia, Segre Fund, International Association for Bear Research and Management (USA), Bernd Thies Foundation, Aktionsgemeinschaft Artenschutz, WWF Austria, Türkiye General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu, Zoologische Gesellschaft Frankfurt, Stichting Wildlife (the Netherlands), BBI-MATRA, PIN-MATRA, Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico (LIFE19 NAT/ES/000913), Russian Science Foundation (18-14-00093), Bears in Mind, Stiftung für Bären (Germany), LIFE programme (LIFE96 NAT/GR/003222, LIFE07 NAT/IT/000502, LIFE09 NAT/GR/000333, LIFE12 NAT/GR/000784, LIFE15 NAT/GR/001108, LIFE08 NAT/RO/000500, LIFE13 NAT/SI/000550, LIFE07 NAT/IT/000502, LIFE19 NAT/ES/000913, LIFE13 NAT/RO/001154, LIFE99 NAT/GR/006498, LIFE07 NAT/GR/000291), Hellenic Ministry of Rural Development and Food, Nando Peretti Foundation (Italy), Romanian Environmental SOP (ROSCI0229 Siriu), Sigrid Rausing Trust, Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs from Türkiye, Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja (451-03-68/2022-14-200007), Hacettepe Üniversitesi, European Commission, Polish-Norwegian Research Programme (POLNOR/198352/85/2013), EuroNatur Stiftung, Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management, Whitley Fund, Christensen Fund, The Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (J4-7362), Kaçkar Mountains Sustainable Forest Use and Conservation Project, ERDF A way of making Europe (PID2020-114181GB-I00), Fresno Chaffe Zoo (United States), Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Government of Finland, Miljødirektoratet". DLR Project Management Agency (DLR-PT): 01LC1614A.Peer reviewedJohn Wiley & SonsBiodivERsANational Science Centre (Poland)Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Junta de AndalucíaAgence Nationale de la Recherche (France)Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)Research Council of NorwayNational Geographic SocietyUniversity of UtahColumbus Zoo and AquariumMinistry of Education and Research (Estonia)Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (The Netherlands)Austrian Science FundWorld Wildlife FundMAVA Foundation pour la NaturePrincipado de AsturiasUnited NationsNature Conservation Centre (Türkiye)VodafoneKastamonu UniversityArcturosSwedish Environmental Protection AgencyEuropean CommissionRegione Autonoma Friuli Venezia GiuliaFondation SegréInternational Association for Bear Research and ManagementBernd Thies FoundationGeneral Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks of TürkiyeThe Scientific and Technological Research Council of TürkiyeFrankfurt Zoological SocietyWildlife FoundationMinisterio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico (España)Russian Science FoundationMinistry of Rural Development and Food (Greece)Nando and Elsa Peretti FoundationRomanian AcademyThe Sigrid Rausing TrustMinistry of Forestry and Water Affairs (Türkiye)Ministry of Education and Science (Serbia)Hacettepe UniversityPolish Academy of SciencesNorwegian Research CouncilWhitley Fund for NatureChristensen FundSlovenian Research AgencyFresno Chaffe ZooFinnish Ministry of Agriculture and ForestryGerman Centre for Air and Space TravelLucas, Pablo M. [0000-0003-4517-9748]Thuiller, Wilfried [0000-0002-5388-5274]Talluto, Lauren [0000-0001-5188-7332]Polaina, Ester [0000-0002-5064-5881]Albrecht, Jörg [0000-0002-9708-9413]Selva, Nuria [0000-0003-3389-201X]Barba, Marta de [0000-0002-2979-3716]Penteriani, Vincenzo [0000-0002-9333-7846]Guéguen, Maya [0000-0002-1045-2997]Balkenhol, Niko [0000-0003-4921-5443]Dutta, Trishna [0000-0002-5236-2658]Fedorca, Ancuta [0000-0001-5828-5422]Frank, Shane C. [0000-0001-8153-6656]Zedrosser, Andreas [0000-0003-4417-3037]Ambarlı, Hüseyin [0000-0003-4336-9417]Ballesteros, Fernando [0000-0003-4764-4041]Bashta, Andriy-Taras [0000-0002-8134-5507]Bilgin, Cemal Can [0000-0001-9284-307X]Bogdanović, Neda [0000-0002-3782-6602]Bojarska, Katarzyna [0000-0001-7872-5763]Brøseth, Henrik [0000-0003-3795-891X]Chynoweth, Mark W. [0000-0001-9203-8193]Ćirović, Duško [0000-0001-9468-0948]Ciucci, Paolo [0000-0002-0994-3422]Corradini, Andrea [0000-0002-9294-656X]De Angelis, Daniele [0000-0002-2529-6210]Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de [0000-0002-8722-6146]Domokos, Csaba [0000-0002-9973-7779]Ertürk, Alper [0000-0001-5498-3856]Filacorda, Stefano [0000-0002-0984-2373]Frangini, Lorenzo [0000-0002-1281-0188]Huber, Djuro [0000-0002-3912-3812]Huitu, Otso [0000-0003-3829-1213]Jerina, Klemen [0000-0003-3946-2678]Karamanlidis, Alexandros A. [0000-0003-0943-1619]Kindberg, Jonas [0000-0003-1445-4524]Kojola, Ilpo [0000-0003-2866-5090]López-Bao, José V. [0000-0001-9213-998X]Männil, Peep [0009-0006-5217-2535]Melovski, Dime [0000-0002-1072-6978]Molinari-Jobin, Anja [0000-0002-3729-2532]Naves, Javier [0000-0003-3773-0288]Ogurtsov, Sergey [0000-0002-0859-8954]Özüt, Deniz [0000-0002-6692-7533]Piminov, Vladimir N. [0009-0008-5092-1314]Pop, Ioan-Mihai [0000-0001-9706-3697]Psaralexi, Maria [0000-0002-0220-8855]Reljic, Slaven [0000-0002-8110-384X]Revilla, Eloy [0000-0001-5534-5581]Saarma, Urmas [0000-0002-3222-571X]Saveljev, Alexander P. [0000-0002-8103-5787]Sayar, Ali Onur [0000-0001-6000-2946]Şekercioğlu, Çagan H. [0000-0003-3193-0377]Sergiel, Agnieszka [0000-0002-3455-4218]Skrbinšek, Tomaž [0000-0003-4435-7477]Soyumert, Anil [0000-0003-0196-9617]Tammeleht, Egle [0000-0003-0871-051X]Tirronen, Konstantin [0000-0002-8208-5460]Trajçe, Aleksandër [0000-0002-6815-7421]Trbojević, Igor [0000-0003-0781-7235]Zlatanova, Diana [0000-0002-4115-2786]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/399234https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105007290396reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-114181GB-I00The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70252Lucas, Pablo M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Talluto, Lauren; Polaina, Ester; Albrecht, Jörg; Selva, Nuria; Barba, Marta de; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Guéguen, Maya; Balkenhol, Niko; Dutta, Trishna; Fedorca, Ancuta; Frank, Shane C.; Zedrosser, Andreas; Afonso-Jordana, Ivan; Ambarlı, Hüseyin; Ballesteros, Fernando; Bashta, Andriy-Taras; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Bogdanović, Neda; Bojārs, Edgars; Bojarska, Katarzyna; Bragalanti, Natalia; Brøseth, Henrik; Chynoweth, Mark W.; Ćirović, Duško; Ciucci, Paolo; Corradini, Andrea; De Angelis, Daniele; Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de; Domokos, Csaba; Dutsov, Aleksander; Ertürk, Alper; Filacorda, Stefano; Frangini, Lorenzo; Groff, Claudio; Heikkinen, Samuli; Hoxha, Bledi; Huber, Djuro; Huitu, Otso; Ionescu, Georgeta; Ionescu, Ovidiu; Jerina, Klemen; Jurj, Ramon; Karamanlidis, Alexandros A.; Kindberg, Jonas; Kojola, Ilpo; López-Bao, José V.; Männil, Peep; Melovski, Dime; Mertzanis, Yorgos; Molinari, Paolo; Molinari-Jobin, Anja; Mustoni, Andrea; Naves, Javier; Ogurtsov, Sergey; Özüt, Deniz; Palazón, Santiago; Pedrotti, Luca; Perović, Aleksandar; Piminov, Vladimir N.; Pop, Ioan-Mihai; Popa, Marius; Psaralexi, Maria; Quenette, Pierre-Yves; Rauer, Georg; Reljic, Slaven; Revilla, Eloy; Saarma, Urmas; Saveljev, Alexander P.; Sayar, Ali Onur; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Sergiel, Agnieszka; Sîrbu, George; Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Skuban, Michaela; Soyumert, Anil; Stojanov, Aleksandar; Tammeleht, Egle; Tirronen, Konstantin; Trajçe, Aleksandër; Trbojević, Igor; Trbojević, Tijana; Zięba, Filip; Zlatanova, Diana; Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz; Pollock, Laura J.; 2025; Brown bear trophic interactions database [Dataset]; Zenodo; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15364702Lucas, Pablo M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Talluto, Lauren; Polaina, Ester; Albrecht, Jörg; Selva, Nuria; Barba, Marta de; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Guéguen, Maya; Balkenhol, Niko; Dutta, Trishna; Fedorca, Ancuta; Frank, Shane C.; Zedrosser, Andreas; Afonso-Jordana, Ivan; Ambarlı, Hüseyin; Ballesteros, Fernando; Bashta, Andriy-Taras; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Bogdanović, Neda; Bojārs, Edgars; Bojarska, Katarzyna; Bragalanti, Natalia; Brøseth, Henrik; Chynoweth, Mark W.; Ćirović, Duško; Ciucci, Paolo; Corradini, Andrea; De Angelis, Daniele; Gabriel Hernando, Miguel de; Domokos, Csaba; Dutsov, Aleksander; Ertürk, Alper; Filacorda, Stefano; Frangini, Lorenzo; Groff, Claudio; Heikkinen, Samuli; Hoxha, Bledi; Huber, Djuro; Huitu, Otso; Ionescu, Georgeta; Ionescu, Ovidiu; Jerina, Klemen; Jurj, Ramon; Karamanlidis, Alexandros A.; Kindberg, Jonas; Kojola, Ilpo; López-Bao, José V.; Männil, Peep; Melovski, Dime; Mertzanis, Yorgos; Molinari, Paolo; Molinari-Jobin, Anja; Mustoni, Andrea; Naves, Javier; Ogurtsov, Sergey; Özüt, Deniz; Palazón, Santiago; Pedrotti, Luca; Perović, Aleksandar; Piminov, Vladimir N.; Pop, Ioan-Mihai; Popa, Marius; Psaralexi, Maria; Quenette, Pierre-Yves; Rauer, Georg; Reljic, Slaven; Revilla, Eloy; Saarma, Urmas; Saveljev, Alexander P.; Sayar, Ali Onur; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Sergiel, Agnieszka; Sîrbu, George; Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Skuban, Michaela; Soyumert, Anil; Stojanov, Aleksandar; Tammeleht, Egle; Tirronen, Konstantin; Trajçe, Aleksandër; Trbojević, Igor; Trbojević, Tijana; Zięba, Filip; Zlatanova, Diana; Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz; Pollock, Laura J.; 2025; Range Database [Dataset]; Zenodo; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15375279Karger, Dirk N.; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen et al. ; 2018; Data from: Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas [Dataset]. Dryad; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.kd1d4https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70252Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3992342026-05-22T06:33:51Z |
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