A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles

All of the environmental conditions in nature act on an organism simultaneously. However, in experimental studies of the factors influencing metamorphosis, each factor needs to be examined individually in order to disentangle its specific effects. However, it is challenging to then build properly in...

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Autores: Colomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels), Margalida, Antoni, Sanuy, Isabel, Llorente, Gustavo A., Sanuy i Castells, Delfí, Pujol-Buixó, Eudal
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
Repositorio:Repositori Obert UdL
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/72481
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/72481
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Metamorphosis
Population dynamics
Canvis climàtics--Models matemàtics
Depredació
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spelling A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpolesColomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels)Margalida, AntoniSanuy, IsabelLlorente, Gustavo A.Sanuy i Castells, DelfíPujol-Buixó, EudalMetamorphosisPopulation dynamicsCanvis climàtics--Models matemàticsDepredacióAll of the environmental conditions in nature act on an organism simultaneously. However, in experimental studies of the factors influencing metamorphosis, each factor needs to be examined individually in order to disentangle its specific effects. However, it is challenging to then build properly integrated models which include data on all of the different factors evaluated in different experiments. This study set out to develop a predictive model which could synthesize the results of several experiments on survival, development and growth of Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) tadpole guilds. The proposed Population Dynamic P System (PDP) model enables estimates of growth and development during the larval phase, under different environmental conditions, weather conditions, predator density, and pond characteristics and management. The architecture of the model allows the inclusion of an indefinite number of parameters and interactions, with all inputs interacting in parallel, and enables solutions to complex modeling approaches. Using the model with a range of field data, we found that the importance of predation pressure on Natterjack toad tadpole guilds exceeds the potential effects of variations in temperature and precipitation. The impact of introduced invasive predators therefore arguably poses the greatest threat to this species. This type of model holds promise as a reliable management and conservation tool for this and other species, especially where interactions between environmental factors make the impacts of individual factors difficult to predict.Elsevier2021info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/72481reponame:Repositori Obert UdL instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)InglésReproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763Ecological Modelling, 2021, vol. 461, núm. 109763, p. 1-13cc-by.nc-nd (c) Colomer et al., 2021info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/724812026-06-24T12:42:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
title A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
spellingShingle A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
Colomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels)
Metamorphosis
Population dynamics
Canvis climàtics--Models matemàtics
Depredació
title_short A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
title_full A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
title_fullStr A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
title_full_unstemmed A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
title_sort A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Colomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels)
Margalida, Antoni
Sanuy, Isabel
Llorente, Gustavo A.
Sanuy i Castells, Delfí
Pujol-Buixó, Eudal
author Colomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels)
author_facet Colomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels)
Margalida, Antoni
Sanuy, Isabel
Llorente, Gustavo A.
Sanuy i Castells, Delfí
Pujol-Buixó, Eudal
author_role author
author2 Margalida, Antoni
Sanuy, Isabel
Llorente, Gustavo A.
Sanuy i Castells, Delfí
Pujol-Buixó, Eudal
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Metamorphosis
Population dynamics
Canvis climàtics--Models matemàtics
Depredació
topic Metamorphosis
Population dynamics
Canvis climàtics--Models matemàtics
Depredació
description All of the environmental conditions in nature act on an organism simultaneously. However, in experimental studies of the factors influencing metamorphosis, each factor needs to be examined individually in order to disentangle its specific effects. However, it is challenging to then build properly integrated models which include data on all of the different factors evaluated in different experiments. This study set out to develop a predictive model which could synthesize the results of several experiments on survival, development and growth of Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) tadpole guilds. The proposed Population Dynamic P System (PDP) model enables estimates of growth and development during the larval phase, under different environmental conditions, weather conditions, predator density, and pond characteristics and management. The architecture of the model allows the inclusion of an indefinite number of parameters and interactions, with all inputs interacting in parallel, and enables solutions to complex modeling approaches. Using the model with a range of field data, we found that the importance of predation pressure on Natterjack toad tadpole guilds exceeds the potential effects of variations in temperature and precipitation. The impact of introduced invasive predators therefore arguably poses the greatest threat to this species. This type of model holds promise as a reliable management and conservation tool for this and other species, especially where interactions between environmental factors make the impacts of individual factors difficult to predict.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/72481
url https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/72481
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763
Ecological Modelling, 2021, vol. 461, núm. 109763, p. 1-13
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by.nc-nd (c) Colomer et al., 2021
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by.nc-nd (c) Colomer et al., 2021
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositori Obert UdL
instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
instname_str Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
reponame_str Repositori Obert UdL
collection Repositori Obert UdL
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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