Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia

Temporal compound events (TCEs), such as the consecutive occurrence of two complementary extremes of the hydrological spectrum (floods and droughts), exhibit a volatile hydrological cycle that exacerbate the challenges associated with water resources management. This study makes use of bias-correcte...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Ansari, Rubina, Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229, Liaqat, Muhammad Usman, Grossi, Giovanna
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
Repositorio:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/39066
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10902/39066
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Temporal compound events
Bias correction
CMIP6
CORDEX
CORDEX-CORE
Climate change
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spelling Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South AsiaAnsari, RubinaCasanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229Liaqat, Muhammad UsmanGrossi, GiovannaTemporal compound eventsBias correctionCMIP6CORDEXCORDEX-COREClimate changeTemporal compound events (TCEs), such as the consecutive occurrence of two complementary extremes of the hydrological spectrum (floods and droughts), exhibit a volatile hydrological cycle that exacerbate the challenges associated with water resources management. This study makes use of bias-corrected climate models output from three modeling experiments (CMIP6, CORDEX, and CORDEX-CORE), to examine moderate to extreme wet and dry events and their temporal compounding over the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB), under low, medium, and high emission scenarios for two future periods (2040?2059 and 2080?2099). Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used to quantify the meteorological wet and dry events that are the main driver of the hydrologic floods and droughts. The two types of TCEs considered in the current study are wet-to-dry (W-to-D) events and dry-to-wet (D-to-W) events in the adjacent month. Results indicate that (1) under warming conditions, wet and dry events are expected to become more frequent and severe whereas duration of the events exhibits distinct change signals depending on the specific location. (2) The basin is more prone to D-to-W TCEs dominated in the southwest of the region, which was not found to be hotspot historically neither for dry nor for wet extreme events. (3) CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE ensembles show varying climate change signals with no specific spatial pattern whereas the CMIP6 ensemble shows stronger change signals and divides the region into two distinct parts, i.e., northeast and southwest.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. The first author as a PhD student received funding from the Cooperation Agreement PFK PhD program 2019–2022 “Partnership for Knowledge-Platform 2: Health and WASH (WAter Sanitation and good Hygiene)” of the AICS-Italian Agency for Development Cooperation to attend higher education programs in Italy in favor of non-Italian citizens. The first author also thanks the Erasmus Training ship Program which allowed a research stay of 3 months at the University of Cantabria, Spain. A.C. acknowledges support from Project COMPOUND (TED2021-131334A-I00) funded by MCIU/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR.Springer NatureUniversidad de Cantabria20252025-02-12journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://hdl.handle.net/10902/39066Regional Environmental Change, 2025, 25(1), 33reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabriainstname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/390662026-06-02T12:39:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
title Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
spellingShingle Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
Ansari, Rubina
Temporal compound events
Bias correction
CMIP6
CORDEX
CORDEX-CORE
Climate change
title_short Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
title_full Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
title_fullStr Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
title_full_unstemmed Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
title_sort Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ansari, Rubina
Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229
Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
Grossi, Giovanna
author Ansari, Rubina
author_facet Ansari, Rubina
Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229
Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
Grossi, Giovanna
author_role author
author2 Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229
Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
Grossi, Giovanna
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Cantabria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Temporal compound events
Bias correction
CMIP6
CORDEX
CORDEX-CORE
Climate change
topic Temporal compound events
Bias correction
CMIP6
CORDEX
CORDEX-CORE
Climate change
description Temporal compound events (TCEs), such as the consecutive occurrence of two complementary extremes of the hydrological spectrum (floods and droughts), exhibit a volatile hydrological cycle that exacerbate the challenges associated with water resources management. This study makes use of bias-corrected climate models output from three modeling experiments (CMIP6, CORDEX, and CORDEX-CORE), to examine moderate to extreme wet and dry events and their temporal compounding over the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB), under low, medium, and high emission scenarios for two future periods (2040?2059 and 2080?2099). Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used to quantify the meteorological wet and dry events that are the main driver of the hydrologic floods and droughts. The two types of TCEs considered in the current study are wet-to-dry (W-to-D) events and dry-to-wet (D-to-W) events in the adjacent month. Results indicate that (1) under warming conditions, wet and dry events are expected to become more frequent and severe whereas duration of the events exhibits distinct change signals depending on the specific location. (2) The basin is more prone to D-to-W TCEs dominated in the southwest of the region, which was not found to be hotspot historically neither for dry nor for wet extreme events. (3) CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE ensembles show varying climate change signals with no specific spatial pattern whereas the CMIP6 ensemble shows stronger change signals and divides the region into two distinct parts, i.e., northeast and southwest.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-02-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10902/39066
url https://hdl.handle.net/10902/39066
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Regional Environmental Change, 2025, 25(1), 33
reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
instname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
instname_str Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
reponame_str UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
collection UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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