The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships

How do failed coups influence power personalization in dictatorships? While scholars have studied the mechanisms of personalism in dictatorships in detail, little attention has been paid to the timing and determinants of surges in personalism levels. In this article, we propose that personalism can...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Timoneda, Joan C., Escribà-Folch, Abel, Chin, John
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Repositorio:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/57138
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/57138
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000655
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Coups
Failed coups
Dictatorship
Personalization
Power concentration
Synthetic control
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spelling The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorshipsTimoneda, Joan C.Escribà-Folch, AbelChin, JohnCoupsFailed coupsDictatorshipPersonalizationPower concentrationSynthetic controlSynthetic controlHow do failed coups influence power personalization in dictatorships? While scholars have studied the mechanisms of personalism in dictatorships in detail, little attention has been paid to the timing and determinants of surges in personalism levels. In this article, we propose that personalism can evolve non-linearly, and show that large, quite rapid increases in personalization by dictators occur after a failed coup attempt. The logic is that failed coups are information-revealing events that provide the dictator with strong motives and ample opportunities to accumulate power. The leader uses this window of opportunity to rapidly consolidate his power at the expense of the ruling coalition. We test the theory using time-series, cross-sectional data on dictatorships in 114 countries in the period between 1946 and 2010. Two placebo tests indicate that disruptive events by regime outsiders – failed assassination attempts and civil war onsets – do not promote the rush to personalize.Cambridge University Press202320232023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10230/57138http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000655reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPFinstname:Universitat Pompeu FabraInglésBritish Journal of Political Science. 2023;53(3):878-901This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/571382026-06-12T07:21:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
title The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
spellingShingle The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
Timoneda, Joan C.
Coups
Failed coups
Dictatorship
Personalization
Power concentration
Synthetic control
Synthetic control
title_short The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
title_full The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
title_fullStr The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
title_full_unstemmed The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
title_sort The rush to personalize: power concentration after failed coups in dictatorships
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Timoneda, Joan C.
Escribà-Folch, Abel
Chin, John
author Timoneda, Joan C.
author_facet Timoneda, Joan C.
Escribà-Folch, Abel
Chin, John
author_role author
author2 Escribà-Folch, Abel
Chin, John
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Coups
Failed coups
Dictatorship
Personalization
Power concentration
Synthetic control
Synthetic control
topic Coups
Failed coups
Dictatorship
Personalization
Power concentration
Synthetic control
Synthetic control
description How do failed coups influence power personalization in dictatorships? While scholars have studied the mechanisms of personalism in dictatorships in detail, little attention has been paid to the timing and determinants of surges in personalism levels. In this article, we propose that personalism can evolve non-linearly, and show that large, quite rapid increases in personalization by dictators occur after a failed coup attempt. The logic is that failed coups are information-revealing events that provide the dictator with strong motives and ample opportunities to accumulate power. The leader uses this window of opportunity to rapidly consolidate his power at the expense of the ruling coalition. We test the theory using time-series, cross-sectional data on dictatorships in 114 countries in the period between 1946 and 2010. Two placebo tests indicate that disruptive events by regime outsiders – failed assassination attempts and civil war onsets – do not promote the rush to personalize.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023
2023
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10230/57138
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000655
url http://hdl.handle.net/10230/57138
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000655
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv British Journal of Political Science. 2023;53(3):878-901
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
instname:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
instname_str Universitat Pompeu Fabra
reponame_str Repositorio Digital de la UPF
collection Repositorio Digital de la UPF
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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