Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests

[EN] Despite disturbances intensifying across European forests, it is not well known how their baseline regimes and trends vary across regions and disturbance agents. Using a Landsat-derived dataset of over 3.8 million fire, wind and bark beetle disturbance events (1985–2023), we applied Gaussian fi...

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Autores: Miguel, Sofia, Lines, Emily, Tanase, Mihai A., Viana-Soto, Alba, Senf, Cornelius, Ruiz-Benito, Paloma
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:digitalcsic_::095d4328553d78c9dcb62034f428b7fe
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431793
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105034149773
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Agent-specific patterns
Disturbance regimes
Disturbance trends
uropean forests
Fire disturbances
Natural forest disturbances
Remote sensing
Wind and bark beetle disturbances
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dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
title Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
spellingShingle Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
Miguel, Sofia
Agent-specific patterns
Disturbance regimes
Disturbance trends
uropean forests
Fire disturbances
Natural forest disturbances
Remote sensing
Wind and bark beetle disturbances
title_short Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
title_full Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
title_fullStr Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
title_full_unstemmed Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
title_sort Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Miguel, Sofia
Lines, Emily
Tanase, Mihai A.
Viana-Soto, Alba
Senf, Cornelius
Ruiz-Benito, Paloma
author Miguel, Sofia
author_facet Miguel, Sofia
Lines, Emily
Tanase, Mihai A.
Viana-Soto, Alba
Senf, Cornelius
Ruiz-Benito, Paloma
author_role author
author2 Lines, Emily
Tanase, Mihai A.
Viana-Soto, Alba
Senf, Cornelius
Ruiz-Benito, Paloma
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
European Commission
Comunidad de Madrid
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)
Tanase, Mihai A, [0000-0002-0045-2299]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Agent-specific patterns
Disturbance regimes
Disturbance trends
uropean forests
Fire disturbances
Natural forest disturbances
Remote sensing
Wind and bark beetle disturbances
topic Agent-specific patterns
Disturbance regimes
Disturbance trends
uropean forests
Fire disturbances
Natural forest disturbances
Remote sensing
Wind and bark beetle disturbances
description [EN] Despite disturbances intensifying across European forests, it is not well known how their baseline regimes and trends vary across regions and disturbance agents. Using a Landsat-derived dataset of over 3.8 million fire, wind and bark beetle disturbance events (1985–2023), we applied Gaussian finite mixture models to characterise natural disturbance regimes by causal agent, based on disturbance size, severity and frequency. We then analysed their variability across 50-km grid cells and biomes (boreal, temperate, Mediterranean), as well as their long-term trends and transitions across three periods (1985–1997, 1998–2010, 2011–2023). Fire regimes exhibited a marked north–south latitudinal gradient: severe and rare fires occurred in boreal and temperate biomes, whereas moderate and large and frequent fires predominated in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean transitional forests. For wind and bark beetle disturbances, we identified four distinct regimes: moderate disturbances predominated in boreal and temperate biomes; mild and rare disturbances occurred in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean forests; and frequent and small, as well as severe and large disturbances predominated in Central Europe and the British Isles, respectively. Approximately 15% of all grid cells shifted to a different disturbance regime during the study period. Fire frequency and severity declined in temperate and Mediterranean forests between the first and second period (1985–1997 and 1998–2010). Wind and bark beetle disturbances decreased in size in boreal and temperate forests during the same period, followed by increases in disturbance severity in temperate forests between the second and third period (1998–2010 and 2011–2023). Synthesis and applications: The heterogeneity of natural disturbance patterns and high temporal variability across European Forest suggest the need of adopting context-dependent management strategies tailored to both the dominant disturbance agent and local environmental conditions, particularly in the most vulnerable regions, such as the Iberian Peninsula—with large and frequent fires—and Central Europe—with increasing bark beetle outbreaks.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
2026
2026
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dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431793
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105034149773
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431793
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105034149773
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
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Miguel, Sofia; Lines, Emily; Tanase, Mihai A.; Viana-Soto, Alba; Senf, Cornelius; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; 2026; Data for: Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests; Dryad; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.gb5mkkx4q; http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431725
Miguel, Sofia; Lines, Emily; Tanase, Mihai A.; Viana-Soto, Alba; Senf, Cornelius; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma. Correction to “Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests”. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70366. http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431826
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70344
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dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
British Ecological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
British Ecological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
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spelling Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forestsMiguel, SofiaLines, EmilyTanase, Mihai A.Viana-Soto, AlbaSenf, CorneliusRuiz-Benito, PalomaAgent-specific patternsDisturbance regimesDisturbance trendsuropean forestsFire disturbancesNatural forest disturbancesRemote sensingWind and bark beetle disturbances[EN] Despite disturbances intensifying across European forests, it is not well known how their baseline regimes and trends vary across regions and disturbance agents. Using a Landsat-derived dataset of over 3.8 million fire, wind and bark beetle disturbance events (1985–2023), we applied Gaussian finite mixture models to characterise natural disturbance regimes by causal agent, based on disturbance size, severity and frequency. We then analysed their variability across 50-km grid cells and biomes (boreal, temperate, Mediterranean), as well as their long-term trends and transitions across three periods (1985–1997, 1998–2010, 2011–2023). Fire regimes exhibited a marked north–south latitudinal gradient: severe and rare fires occurred in boreal and temperate biomes, whereas moderate and large and frequent fires predominated in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean transitional forests. For wind and bark beetle disturbances, we identified four distinct regimes: moderate disturbances predominated in boreal and temperate biomes; mild and rare disturbances occurred in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean forests; and frequent and small, as well as severe and large disturbances predominated in Central Europe and the British Isles, respectively. Approximately 15% of all grid cells shifted to a different disturbance regime during the study period. Fire frequency and severity declined in temperate and Mediterranean forests between the first and second period (1985–1997 and 1998–2010). Wind and bark beetle disturbances decreased in size in boreal and temperate forests during the same period, followed by increases in disturbance severity in temperate forests between the second and third period (1998–2010 and 2011–2023). Synthesis and applications: The heterogeneity of natural disturbance patterns and high temporal variability across European Forest suggest the need of adopting context-dependent management strategies tailored to both the dominant disturbance agent and local environmental conditions, particularly in the most vulnerable regions, such as the Iberian Peninsula—with large and frequent fires—and Central Europe—with increasing bark beetle outbreaks.[ES] Las perturbaciones forestales en Europa se están intensificando y, sin embargo, todavía no se conocen con precisión cuáles son los regímenes de perturbación de referencia según la región y el agente causante, ni cómo varían estas tendencias observadas. Mediante una base de datos derivada de Landsat de más de 3.8 millones de perturbaciones provocadas por incendios, vientos y escolítidos (1985–2023), aplicamos modelos de mezclas finitas gaussianas para caracterizar los regímenes de perturbaciones según el agente causal, y mediante su tamaño, severidad y frecuencia medios. Posteriormente, analizamos su variabilidad espacial mediante rejillas hexagonales de 50 km y considerando el bioma (boreal, templado y mediterráneo), y sus tendencias a largo plazo y transiciones entre periodos (1985–1997, 1998–2010 y 2011–2023). Los regímenes de incendios mostraron un marcado gradiente latitudinal norte-sur: los incendios severos e infrecuentes dominaron en biomas boreales y templados, mientras que los incendios moderados, y extensos y frecuentes dominaron en los bosques mediterráneos y en las zonas de transición templado-mediterráneas. En cuanto a las perturbaciones producidas por viento y escolítidos, identificamos cuatro regímenes distintos: las perturbaciones moderadas dominaron en los biomas boreales y templados; las perturbaciones leves e infrecuentes dominaron en los bosques mediterráneos y templado-mediterráneos; y las perturbaciones frecuentes y pequeñas, y las severas y extensas se concentraron en Europa Central y en las Islas Británicas, respectivamente. Aproximadamente el 15% de las rejillas cambiaron de régimen de perturbación durante el periodo de estudio. La frecuencia y severidad de incendios disminuyó en bosques templados y mediterráneos entre el primer y el segundo periodo (1985–1997 y 1998–2010). Durante ese mismo intervalo, el tamaño de las perturbaciones por viento y escolítidos disminuyó en bosques boreales y templados, y entre el segundo y el tercer periodo (1998–2010 y 2011–2023) aumentó en severidad en bosques templados. Síntesis y aplicaciones: La heterogeneidad en los patrones espaciales de las perturbaciones naturales en Europa y su elevada variabilidad temporal ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de adoptar estrategias de gestión adaptadas al contexto, según los agentes de perturbación presentes y las condiciones ambientales locales. Esto es especialmente importante en las regiones más vulnerables, como la península Ibérica caracterizada por incendios grandes y frecuentes, y Europa Central donde las infestaciones por escolítidos están aumentando.This work was funded by the Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation and the Madrid region through grants PIPF-2022/TEC-26321 and 2024-1-ES01-KA131-HED-000196755. Paloma Ruiz-Benito was funded by the Science and Innovation Ministry, AEI (LARGE, N° PID2021-123675OB-C41). Mihai Tanase was funded by the Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation through the projects PID2020-114062RA-I00 and CNS2022-135251. Alba Viana-Soto and Cornelius Senf acknowledge funding from the ForestPaths project (Horizon Europe, grant no. 101056755), the AI4Forest project (BMBF; grant number: 01IS23025C), the ESA Project CLIMATE SPACE RECCAP2 (contract 4000144908/24/I-LR) and Paloma Ruiz-Benito from the CLIM-Forest project (Horizon Europe project, No 101059888). Horizon Europe projects were funded by the European Union.Peer reviewedJohn Wiley & SonsBritish Ecological SocietyMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)European CommissionComunidad de MadridFederal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)Tanase, Mihai A, [0000-0002-0045-2299]202620262026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlePublisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/431793https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105034149773reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#PIPF-2022/TEC-26321info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2021-123675OB-C41info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-114062RA-I00info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI//CNS2022-135251info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056755info:eu-repo/grantagreement/EC/HE/101059888Miguel, Sofia; Lines, Emily; Tanase, Mihai A.; Viana-Soto, Alba; Senf, Cornelius; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; 2026; Data for: Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests; Dryad; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.gb5mkkx4q; http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431725Miguel, Sofia; Lines, Emily; Tanase, Mihai A.; Viana-Soto, Alba; Senf, Cornelius; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma. Correction to “Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests”. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70366. http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431826https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70344Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:digitalcsic_::095d4328553d78c9dcb62034f428b7fe2026-05-22T06:33:51Z
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