Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition

The energy transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free sources will be a big challenge in the coming decades. In this context, the long-term prediction of energy demand plays a key role in planning energy infrastructures and in adopting economic and energy policies. In this article, we aimed to fore...

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Autores: Sánchez Durán, Rafael, Luque Rodríguez, Joaquín, Barbancho Concejero, Julio
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/91719
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/91719
https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163095
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Long-term energy demand
Energy demand forecasting
Energy transition
Econometric model
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spelling Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy TransitionSánchez Durán, RafaelLuque Rodríguez, JoaquínBarbancho Concejero, JulioLong-term energy demandEnergy demand forecastingEnergy transitionEconometric modelThe energy transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free sources will be a big challenge in the coming decades. In this context, the long-term prediction of energy demand plays a key role in planning energy infrastructures and in adopting economic and energy policies. In this article, we aimed to forecast energy demand for Spain, mainly employing econometrics techniques. From information obtained from institutional databases, energy demand was decomposed into many factors and economy-related activity sectors, obtaining a set of disaggregated sequences of time-dependent values. Using time-series techniques, a long-term prediction was then obtained for each component. Finally, every element was aggregated to obtain the final long-term energy demand forecast. For the year 2030, an energy demand equivalent to 82 million tons of oil was forecast. Due to improvements in energy e ciency in the post-crisis period, a decoupling of economy and energy demand was obtained, with a 30% decrease in energy intensity for the period 2005–2030. World future scenarios show a significant increase in energy demand due to human development of less developed economies. For Spain, our research concluded that energy demand will remain stable in the next decade, despite the foreseen 2% annual growth of the nation’s economy. Despite the enormous energy concentration and density of fossil fuels, it will not be a ordable to use them to supply energy demand in the future. The consolidation of renewable energies and increasing energy e ciency is the only way to satisfy the planet’s energy needs.MDPITecnología Electrónica2019info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/11441/91719https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163095reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevillainstname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)InglésEnergies, 12 (16)https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/16/3095info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:idus.us.es:11441/917192026-06-17T12:51:07Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
title Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
spellingShingle Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
Sánchez Durán, Rafael
Long-term energy demand
Energy demand forecasting
Energy transition
Econometric model
title_short Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
title_full Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
title_fullStr Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
title_full_unstemmed Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
title_sort Long-Term Demand Forecasting in a Scenario of Energy Transition
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sánchez Durán, Rafael
Luque Rodríguez, Joaquín
Barbancho Concejero, Julio
author Sánchez Durán, Rafael
author_facet Sánchez Durán, Rafael
Luque Rodríguez, Joaquín
Barbancho Concejero, Julio
author_role author
author2 Luque Rodríguez, Joaquín
Barbancho Concejero, Julio
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Tecnología Electrónica
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Long-term energy demand
Energy demand forecasting
Energy transition
Econometric model
topic Long-term energy demand
Energy demand forecasting
Energy transition
Econometric model
description The energy transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free sources will be a big challenge in the coming decades. In this context, the long-term prediction of energy demand plays a key role in planning energy infrastructures and in adopting economic and energy policies. In this article, we aimed to forecast energy demand for Spain, mainly employing econometrics techniques. From information obtained from institutional databases, energy demand was decomposed into many factors and economy-related activity sectors, obtaining a set of disaggregated sequences of time-dependent values. Using time-series techniques, a long-term prediction was then obtained for each component. Finally, every element was aggregated to obtain the final long-term energy demand forecast. For the year 2030, an energy demand equivalent to 82 million tons of oil was forecast. Due to improvements in energy e ciency in the post-crisis period, a decoupling of economy and energy demand was obtained, with a 30% decrease in energy intensity for the period 2005–2030. World future scenarios show a significant increase in energy demand due to human development of less developed economies. For Spain, our research concluded that energy demand will remain stable in the next decade, despite the foreseen 2% annual growth of the nation’s economy. Despite the enormous energy concentration and density of fossil fuels, it will not be a ordable to use them to supply energy demand in the future. The consolidation of renewable energies and increasing energy e ciency is the only way to satisfy the planet’s energy needs.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/11441/91719
https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163095
url https://hdl.handle.net/11441/91719
https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163095
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Energies, 12 (16)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/16/3095
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
instname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
instname_str Universidad de Sevilla (US)
reponame_str idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
collection idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
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