Partial validation of cellular automata based model simulations of urban growth: an approach to assessing factor influence using spatial methods

Cellular Automata (CA) based models have a high aptitude to reproduce the characteristics of urban processes and are useful to explore future scenarios. However, validation of their results poses a major challenge due to the absence of real future data with which to compare them. A partial validatio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Barreira González, Pablo, Aguilera Benavente, Francisco Israel|||0000-0001-5710-2057, Gómez Delgado, Montserrat|||0000-0001-6021-4340
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Alcalá (UAH)
Repositorio:e_Buah Biblioteca Digital Universidad de Alcalá
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ebuah.uah.es:10017/36010
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10017/36010
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.03.008 1364-8152
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Cellular automata models
Urban growth
Partial validation
Map comparison
Frequency maps
Geografía
Geography
Descripción
Sumario:Cellular Automata (CA) based models have a high aptitude to reproduce the characteristics of urban processes and are useful to explore future scenarios. However, validation of their results poses a major challenge due to the absence of real future data with which to compare them. A partial validation applied to a CA-based model for the Madrid Region (Spain) is presented as a proposal for determining the influence of given factors on the results and testing their spatial variability. Several simulations of the model were computed by different combinations of factors, and results were compared using flexible map comparison methods in order to study spatial pattern matches and similarities between them. Main and total effects of these factors were calculated for each method, by applying a simplified Global Sensitivity Analysis approach. Frequency maps showing the most frequent cells with changed land use in the results were generated.