A variable neighborhood search simheuristic for project portfolio selection under uncertainty

With limited nancial resources, decision-makers in rms and governments face the task of selecting the best portfolio of projects to invest in. As the pool of project proposals increases and more realistic constraints are considered, the problem becomes NP-hard. Thus, metaheuristics have been employe...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Panadero, Javier, Döering, Jana, Kizys, Renatas, Juan, Angel A., Fitó-Bertran, Àngels
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC)
Repositorio:O2, repositorio institucional de la UOC
OAI Identifier:oai:openaccess.uoc.edu:10609/113486
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10609/113486
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:project portfolio selection
stochastic optimization
net present value
variable neighborhood search
simheuristics
selección de cartera de proyectos
optimización estocástica
valor actual neto
búsqueda de vecindad variable
selecció de cartera de projectes
optimització estocàstica
valor actual net
cerca de barris variable
Heuristic
Heurística
Descripción
Sumario:With limited nancial resources, decision-makers in rms and governments face the task of selecting the best portfolio of projects to invest in. As the pool of project proposals increases and more realistic constraints are considered, the problem becomes NP-hard. Thus, metaheuristics have been employed for solving large instances of the project portfolio selection problem (PPSP). However, most of the existing works do not account for uncertainty. This paper contributes to close this gap by analyzing a stochastic version of the PPSP: the goal is to maximize the expected net present value of the inversion, while considering random cash ows and discount rates in future periods, as well as a rich set of constraints including the maximum risk allowed. To solve this stochastic PPSP, a simulation-optimization algorithm is introduced. Our approach integrates a variable neighborhood search metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation. A series of computational experiments contribute to validate our approach and illustrate how the solutions vary as the level of uncertainty increases.