Drivers and trends in the size and severity of forest fires endangering WUI areas: a regional case study
[EN] This study explored, for the first time, the drivers shaping large fire size and high severity of forest fires classified as level-2 in Spain, which pose a great danger to the wildland–urban interface. Specifically, we examined how bottom-up (fuel type and topography) and top-down (fire weather...
| Autores: | , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2023 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de León |
| Repositorio: | BULERIA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de León |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:buleria.unileon.es:10612/20590 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/12/2366 https://hdl.handle.net/10612/20590 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Ecología. Medio ambiente Ingeniería forestal Fire severity Fire weather Level-2 forest fires Spain 3106.99 Otras (Incendios forestales) 3106.06 Protección |
| Sumario: | [EN] This study explored, for the first time, the drivers shaping large fire size and high severity of forest fires classified as level-2 in Spain, which pose a great danger to the wildland–urban interface. Specifically, we examined how bottom-up (fuel type and topography) and top-down (fire weather) controls shaped level-2 fire behavior through a Random Forest classifier at the regional scale in Galicia (NW Spain). We selected for this purpose 93 level-2 forest fires. The accuracy of the RF fire size and severity classifications was remarkably high (>80%). Fire weather overwhelmed bottom-up controls in controlling the fire size of level-2 forest fires. The likelihood of large level-2 forest fires increased sharply with the fire weather index, but plateaued at values above 40. Fire size strongly responded to minimum relative humidity at values below 30%. The most important variables explaining fire severity in level-2 forest fires were the same as in the fire size, as well as the pre-fire shrubland fraction. The high-fire-severity likelihood of level-2 forest fires increased exponentially for shrubland fractions in the landscape above 50%. Our results suggest that level-2 forest fires will pose an increasing danger to people and their property under predicted scenarios of extreme weather conditions |
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