Criterios gasto prioridad y volumen prioridad para la estimación de hidrogramas de avenidas mediante cópulas

[EN] Copula-based hydrological estimation provides a realistic framework to represent dependence between extreme variables. This study presents an improved methodology for estimating flood hydrographs characterized by peak discharge and accumulated volume, using the Peak Flow Priority (QP) and Volum...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Copca Maya, Eduardo Omar, Fuentes Mariles, Óscar Arturo, Arganis Juárez, Maritza Liliana, Gracia Sánchez, Jesús
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:riunet______::8a0c4c4a1a4f779122d9f5cfbad5e4e9
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/235106
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Copula
Joint return period
Bivariate distribution function
Design hydrographs
Base time
Cópulas
Periodo de retorno conjunto
Función de distribución bivariada
Hidrogramas de avenidas
Descripción
Sumario:[EN] Copula-based hydrological estimation provides a realistic framework to represent dependence between extreme variables. This study presents an improved methodology for estimating flood hydrographs characterized by peak discharge and accumulated volume, using the Peak Flow Priority (QP) and Volume Priority (VP) criteria. Empirical marginal distributions, obtained with the rank-based method, were used to build Archimedean copulas (Gumbel Hougaard, Frank, and Clayton) to describe the joint dependence structure. Parametric distributions (Gumbel, Weibull, and Gamma, and their combinations) were applied only to compute the joint probability isolines. The duration analysis identified an optimal base duration of 18 days based on the 5% volume variation criterion. The Gumbel Hougaard (for QP) and Frank (for VP) copulas achieved the best fits according to the Kolmogorov Smirnov and Anderson Darling tests. Applied to the La Angostura dam (Sonora, Mexico), the routed hydrographs produced maximum levels of about 833 m a.s.l., confirming the reservoir's attenuation capacity and the consistency of the bivariate model.