Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate

High Mountain Asia (HMA), including the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayas (HKH) is one of the world's key "water towers", with the resources supporting hundreds of millions of people. Currently, this region is experi encing significant demographic and socio-economic growth. Reliable hydr...

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Autores: Liaqat, Muhammad Usman, Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229, Ansari, Rubina, Grossi, Giovanna, Ranzi, Roberto
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
Repositorio:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/35315
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10902/35315
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Climate change
Hydrological modelling
Upper indus basin
CORDEX South Asia
Regional climate models
Karakoram anomaly
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spelling Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climateLiaqat, Muhammad UsmanCasanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229Ansari, RubinaGrossi, GiovannaRanzi, RobertoClimate changeHydrological modellingUpper indus basinCORDEX South AsiaRegional climate modelsKarakoram anomalyHigh Mountain Asia (HMA), including the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayas (HKH) is one of the world's key "water towers", with the resources supporting hundreds of millions of people. Currently, this region is experi encing significant demographic and socio-economic growth. Reliable hydrological projections of the future supply of water resources are essential, given the likelihood that water resources demand will continue to in crease. In this study, CORDEX South Asia (CORDEX-WAS44) regional climate models (RCMs) and the Physically Based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model, that was calibrated with hourly meteorological data and daily runoff over eight years of monitoring period, are employed in the Naltar catchment located in the Hunza river basin, Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan to project glacio-hydrological regimes in the future climate. For each of the CORDEX-WAS44 simulations, climate change signals for near future (2040-2059) and far future (2080-2099) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are presented with respect to the corresponding present climate (1991-2010). Results show overall significant increases in mean temperature between (+0.9 to + 6.0 ºC, depending upon the scenario) and total precipitation (+6 to + 29 %) from April to September by the end of the century for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The projected simulations of energy and mass balance indicate that snow and ice melt rate will increase consistently in both future periods with an earlier timing of the snowmelt as it appears in June in the near future (2040-2059) and in May in the far future (2080-2099) under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The increase in temperature, precipitation and winter snowpack changes are also expected to have a substantial impact on the hydrological regime in the Naltar catchment, with a peak flow occurring one to two months earlier and a total by 2090 and a decrease of total runoff in the monsoon season by -3 to -24 % in the near and far future, respectively, under RCP 8.5 scenario and more neutral changes (-2 to + 3 %) according to RCP 4.5. Based on these results and the discussion above, water availability in the Naltar catchment will be uncertain by the end of the century.The study covers one part of the PhD research work of the first author funded by the University of Brescia, Italy, and the Erasmus (Italy) Traineeship Program. The research was partially funded by the Regione Lombardia and CNR-IRPI grant on debris flow modeling in mountain areas. C.A. acknowledges support from Project COMPOUND (TED2021-131334A-I00) funded by MCIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR.ElsevierUniversidad de Cantabria20252025-03-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://hdl.handle.net/10902/35315Journal of Hydrology, 2025, 649, 132411reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabriainstname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/353152026-06-02T12:39:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
title Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
spellingShingle Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
Climate change
Hydrological modelling
Upper indus basin
CORDEX South Asia
Regional climate models
Karakoram anomaly
title_short Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
title_full Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
title_fullStr Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
title_full_unstemmed Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
title_sort Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229
Ansari, Rubina
Grossi, Giovanna
Ranzi, Roberto
author Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
author_facet Liaqat, Muhammad Usman
Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229
Ansari, Rubina
Grossi, Giovanna
Ranzi, Roberto
author_role author
author2 Casanueva Vicente, Ana|||0000-0002-7568-0229
Ansari, Rubina
Grossi, Giovanna
Ranzi, Roberto
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Cantabria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate change
Hydrological modelling
Upper indus basin
CORDEX South Asia
Regional climate models
Karakoram anomaly
topic Climate change
Hydrological modelling
Upper indus basin
CORDEX South Asia
Regional climate models
Karakoram anomaly
description High Mountain Asia (HMA), including the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayas (HKH) is one of the world's key "water towers", with the resources supporting hundreds of millions of people. Currently, this region is experi encing significant demographic and socio-economic growth. Reliable hydrological projections of the future supply of water resources are essential, given the likelihood that water resources demand will continue to in crease. In this study, CORDEX South Asia (CORDEX-WAS44) regional climate models (RCMs) and the Physically Based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model, that was calibrated with hourly meteorological data and daily runoff over eight years of monitoring period, are employed in the Naltar catchment located in the Hunza river basin, Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan to project glacio-hydrological regimes in the future climate. For each of the CORDEX-WAS44 simulations, climate change signals for near future (2040-2059) and far future (2080-2099) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are presented with respect to the corresponding present climate (1991-2010). Results show overall significant increases in mean temperature between (+0.9 to + 6.0 ºC, depending upon the scenario) and total precipitation (+6 to + 29 %) from April to September by the end of the century for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The projected simulations of energy and mass balance indicate that snow and ice melt rate will increase consistently in both future periods with an earlier timing of the snowmelt as it appears in June in the near future (2040-2059) and in May in the far future (2080-2099) under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The increase in temperature, precipitation and winter snowpack changes are also expected to have a substantial impact on the hydrological regime in the Naltar catchment, with a peak flow occurring one to two months earlier and a total by 2090 and a decrease of total runoff in the monsoon season by -3 to -24 % in the near and far future, respectively, under RCP 8.5 scenario and more neutral changes (-2 to + 3 %) according to RCP 4.5. Based on these results and the discussion above, water availability in the Naltar catchment will be uncertain by the end of the century.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-03-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10902/35315
url https://hdl.handle.net/10902/35315
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Journal of Hydrology, 2025, 649, 132411
reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
instname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
instname_str Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
reponame_str UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
collection UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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