Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016

The three aftershock sequences that occurred in Al Hoceima, Morocco, in May 1994 (Mw 6.0), February 2004 (Mw 6.4) and January 2016 (Mw 6.3) were stochastically modeled to investigate their temporal and energetic behavior. A form of the restricted trigger model known as the restricted epidemic type a...

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Autores: Hamdache, Mohamed, Peláez, José Antonio, Gospodinov, Dragomir, Henares, Jesús, Galindo-Zaldívar, Jesús, Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos, Ranguelov, Boyko
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/358626
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/358626
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Point process modeling
RETAS model
Aftershock energy release
Al Hoceima
Morocco
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spelling Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016Hamdache, MohamedPeláez, José AntonioGospodinov, DragomirHenares, JesúsGalindo-Zaldívar, JesúsSanz de Galdeano, CarlosRanguelov, BoykoPoint process modelingRETAS modelAftershock energy releaseAl HoceimaMoroccoThe three aftershock sequences that occurred in Al Hoceima, Morocco, in May 1994 (Mw 6.0), February 2004 (Mw 6.4) and January 2016 (Mw 6.3) were stochastically modeled to investigate their temporal and energetic behavior. A form of the restricted trigger model known as the restricted epidemic type aftershock sequence (RETAS) was used for the temporal analysis of the selected series. The best-determined fit models for each sequence differ based on the Akaike information criteria. The revealed discrepancies suggest that, although the activated fault systems are close (within 10 to 20 km), their stress regimes change and shift across each series. In addition, a stochastic model was presented to study the strain release following a specific strong earthquake. This model was constructed using a compound Poisson process and depicted the progression of the strain release during the aftershock sequence. The proposed model was then applied to the data. After the RETAS model was used to evaluate the behavior of the aftershock decay rate, the best-fit model was obtained and integrated into the strain-release stochastic analysis. By detecting the potential disparities between the observed data and model, the applied stochastic model of strain release allows for a more comprehensive examination. Furthermore, comparing the observed and expected cumulative energy release numbers revealed some variations at the start of all three sequences. This demonstrates that significant aftershock clusters occur more frequently shortly after the mainshock at the start of the sequence rather than if they are assumed to occur randomly.This research was partially funded by the Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresa y Universidad, in the frame of the Programa Operativo FEDER Andalucía 2014–2020—Call made by the University of Jaén 2018 and projects FEDER DAMAGE, CGL2016-80687-R and B-RNM-301-UGR18, RNM148 and P18-RT-3275 (Junta de Andalucía).Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteJunta de AndalucíaUniversidad de JaénUniversidad de GranadaMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]2024202420222024info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/358626reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2016-80687-Rhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12178744Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3586262026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
title Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
spellingShingle Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
Hamdache, Mohamed
Point process modeling
RETAS model
Aftershock energy release
Al Hoceima
Morocco
title_short Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
title_full Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
title_fullStr Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
title_full_unstemmed Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
title_sort Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Hamdache, Mohamed
Peláez, José Antonio
Gospodinov, Dragomir
Henares, Jesús
Galindo-Zaldívar, Jesús
Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos
Ranguelov, Boyko
author Hamdache, Mohamed
author_facet Hamdache, Mohamed
Peláez, José Antonio
Gospodinov, Dragomir
Henares, Jesús
Galindo-Zaldívar, Jesús
Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos
Ranguelov, Boyko
author_role author
author2 Peláez, José Antonio
Gospodinov, Dragomir
Henares, Jesús
Galindo-Zaldívar, Jesús
Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos
Ranguelov, Boyko
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Junta de Andalucía
Universidad de Jaén
Universidad de Granada
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Point process modeling
RETAS model
Aftershock energy release
Al Hoceima
Morocco
topic Point process modeling
RETAS model
Aftershock energy release
Al Hoceima
Morocco
description The three aftershock sequences that occurred in Al Hoceima, Morocco, in May 1994 (Mw 6.0), February 2004 (Mw 6.4) and January 2016 (Mw 6.3) were stochastically modeled to investigate their temporal and energetic behavior. A form of the restricted trigger model known as the restricted epidemic type aftershock sequence (RETAS) was used for the temporal analysis of the selected series. The best-determined fit models for each sequence differ based on the Akaike information criteria. The revealed discrepancies suggest that, although the activated fault systems are close (within 10 to 20 km), their stress regimes change and shift across each series. In addition, a stochastic model was presented to study the strain release following a specific strong earthquake. This model was constructed using a compound Poisson process and depicted the progression of the strain release during the aftershock sequence. The proposed model was then applied to the data. After the RETAS model was used to evaluate the behavior of the aftershock decay rate, the best-fit model was obtained and integrated into the strain-release stochastic analysis. By detecting the potential disparities between the observed data and model, the applied stochastic model of strain release allows for a more comprehensive examination. Furthermore, comparing the observed and expected cumulative energy release numbers revealed some variations at the start of all three sequences. This demonstrates that significant aftershock clusters occur more frequently shortly after the mainshock at the start of the sequence rather than if they are assumed to occur randomly.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2024
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/358626
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/358626
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2016-80687-R
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12178744
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812429

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