Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation

Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the...

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Autores: Marti, Alejandro, Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366, Jorba, Oriol, Janjic, Zavisa
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/103467
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic ash
On-line coupling
Transport-meteorological modeling
Operational forecast
NWPM
TTDM
Cordón Caulle
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica
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spelling Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluationMarti, AlejandroFolch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366Jorba, OriolJanjic, ZavisaVolcanic activity predictionVolcanic ashOn-line couplingTransport-meteorological modelingOperational forecastNWPMTTDMCordón CaulleActivitat volcànica--PrevisióÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdicaTraditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.The research leading to these results has received funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the project NEMOH (REA grant agreement no. 289976). O. Jorba was partially funded by grant CGL2013- 46736 of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain. We are extremely grateful to the Argentinian National Meteorological Service for sharing data to validate this work; in particular we thank M.S. Osores for providing valuable insights into the eruption dynamics. Numerical simulations were performed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center with the MareNostrum Supercomputer using 512 and 256 - 8x4 GB DDR3-1600 DIMMS (2GB/core) Intel Sandy Bridge processors, iDataPlex Compute Racks, a Linux Operating System, and an InfiniBand interconnection.Peer ReviewedEuropean Geosciences Union (EGU)20172017-03-2420172017-04-10journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/1034672026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
title Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
spellingShingle Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
Marti, Alejandro
Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic ash
On-line coupling
Transport-meteorological modeling
Operational forecast
NWPM
TTDM
Cordón Caulle
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica
title_short Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
title_full Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
title_fullStr Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
title_full_unstemmed Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
title_sort Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Marti, Alejandro
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Jorba, Oriol
Janjic, Zavisa
author Marti, Alejandro
author_facet Marti, Alejandro
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Jorba, Oriol
Janjic, Zavisa
author_role author
author2 Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Jorba, Oriol
Janjic, Zavisa
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic ash
On-line coupling
Transport-meteorological modeling
Operational forecast
NWPM
TTDM
Cordón Caulle
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica
topic Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic ash
On-line coupling
Transport-meteorological modeling
Operational forecast
NWPM
TTDM
Cordón Caulle
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica
description Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
2017-03-24
2017
2017-04-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv European Geosciences Union (EGU)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv European Geosciences Union (EGU)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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