The declining performance of the oil sector

This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy...

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Autores: Manfroni, Michele|||0000-0001-7346-0866, Bukkens, Sandra|||0000-0001-9171-3150, Giampietro, Mario|||0000-0002-5569-7023
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:249246
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/249246
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117210
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Oil depletion
Unconventional oils
Fossil transition
CO2 emissions
Relational analysis
Climate change mitigation
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spelling The declining performance of the oil sectorImplications for global climate change mitigationManfroni, Michele|||0000-0001-7346-0866Bukkens, Sandra|||0000-0001-9171-3150Giampietro, Mario|||0000-0002-5569-7023Oil depletionUnconventional oilsFossil transitionCO2 emissionsRelational analysisClimate change mitigationThis article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6-26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations. 22021-01-0120212021-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/249246https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117210reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengAgència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003030 2018/FI_B-00313open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:2492462026-06-06T12:50:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The declining performance of the oil sector
Implications for global climate change mitigation
title The declining performance of the oil sector
spellingShingle The declining performance of the oil sector
Manfroni, Michele|||0000-0001-7346-0866
Oil depletion
Unconventional oils
Fossil transition
CO2 emissions
Relational analysis
Climate change mitigation
title_short The declining performance of the oil sector
title_full The declining performance of the oil sector
title_fullStr The declining performance of the oil sector
title_full_unstemmed The declining performance of the oil sector
title_sort The declining performance of the oil sector
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Manfroni, Michele|||0000-0001-7346-0866
Bukkens, Sandra|||0000-0001-9171-3150
Giampietro, Mario|||0000-0002-5569-7023
author Manfroni, Michele|||0000-0001-7346-0866
author_facet Manfroni, Michele|||0000-0001-7346-0866
Bukkens, Sandra|||0000-0001-9171-3150
Giampietro, Mario|||0000-0002-5569-7023
author_role author
author2 Bukkens, Sandra|||0000-0001-9171-3150
Giampietro, Mario|||0000-0002-5569-7023
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Oil depletion
Unconventional oils
Fossil transition
CO2 emissions
Relational analysis
Climate change mitigation
topic Oil depletion
Unconventional oils
Fossil transition
CO2 emissions
Relational analysis
Climate change mitigation
description This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6-26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2
2021-01-01
2021
2021-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
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dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://ddd.uab.cat/record/249246
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117210
url https://ddd.uab.cat/record/249246
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117210
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003030 2018/FI_B-00313
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
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