Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics

This paper introduces a methodology to build mathematical models based on evidence and data sets, considering data and model uncertainty. We study the evolution of obesity in the population, being obesity a consequence of the transmission of unhealthy lifestyle habits and behavioral patterns influen...

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Autores: Parra Rodríguez, Daniel, Hidalgo Pérez, José Ignacio, Velasco Cabo, José Manuel, Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/117441
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/117441
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:004
Datasets
Automatic model building
Dynamic models
Uncertainty quantification
Informática (Informática)
12 Matemáticas
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spelling Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamicsParra Rodríguez, DanielHidalgo Pérez, José IgnacioVelasco Cabo, José ManuelVillanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto004DatasetsAutomatic model buildingDynamic modelsUncertainty quantificationInformática (Informática)12 MatemáticasThis paper introduces a methodology to build mathematical models based on evidence and data sets, considering data and model uncertainty. We study the evolution of obesity in the population, being obesity a consequence of the transmission of unhealthy lifestyle habits and behavioral patterns influenced by social networks (family, friends, peers, etc.). We propose a three-step methodology. First, we create a synthetic data set based on a previous model with real data. Then, we search for dynamic models based on difference equations that best fit the dynamics described by the dataset and their uncertainty (uncertainty-aware). To do this, we use a dynamic structured grammatical evolution algorithm (an algorithm that builds possible models) on which we have defined a grammar (set of possible expressions that can be part of the model). The definition of appropriate grammar is crucial because it allows us to build models that do not contradict the knowledge of the phenomenon studied. However, the data may suggest introducing new terms that indicate the influence of unknown factors. Finally, from among all the models obtained, we will algorithmically search for a selection of them that best describes the uncertainty of the data. This methodology can be applied to various scenarios with available datasets and a limited understanding of the phenomenon. It aims to generate models that not only achieve precision but also incorporate terms that correspond to identifiable processes, which can be explained within the context of the study problem.SpringerUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20242024-01-0120242024-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/117441reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)InglésengPID2020-115270GB-I00 Not available Not availablePDC2022-133429- I00 Not available Not availablePID2021-125549OB-I00 Not available Not availableMCIN AEI 10.13039open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1174412026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
title Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
spellingShingle Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
Parra Rodríguez, Daniel
004
Datasets
Automatic model building
Dynamic models
Uncertainty quantification
Informática (Informática)
12 Matemáticas
title_short Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
title_full Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
title_fullStr Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
title_sort Building uncertainty-aware mathematical models based on evidence from datasets using grammatical evolution optimization techniques: the case of the obesity dynamics
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Parra Rodríguez, Daniel
Hidalgo Pérez, José Ignacio
Velasco Cabo, José Manuel
Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
author Parra Rodríguez, Daniel
author_facet Parra Rodríguez, Daniel
Hidalgo Pérez, José Ignacio
Velasco Cabo, José Manuel
Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
author_role author
author2 Hidalgo Pérez, José Ignacio
Velasco Cabo, José Manuel
Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 004
Datasets
Automatic model building
Dynamic models
Uncertainty quantification
Informática (Informática)
12 Matemáticas
topic 004
Datasets
Automatic model building
Dynamic models
Uncertainty quantification
Informática (Informática)
12 Matemáticas
description This paper introduces a methodology to build mathematical models based on evidence and data sets, considering data and model uncertainty. We study the evolution of obesity in the population, being obesity a consequence of the transmission of unhealthy lifestyle habits and behavioral patterns influenced by social networks (family, friends, peers, etc.). We propose a three-step methodology. First, we create a synthetic data set based on a previous model with real data. Then, we search for dynamic models based on difference equations that best fit the dynamics described by the dataset and their uncertainty (uncertainty-aware). To do this, we use a dynamic structured grammatical evolution algorithm (an algorithm that builds possible models) on which we have defined a grammar (set of possible expressions that can be part of the model). The definition of appropriate grammar is crucial because it allows us to build models that do not contradict the knowledge of the phenomenon studied. However, the data may suggest introducing new terms that indicate the influence of unknown factors. Finally, from among all the models obtained, we will algorithmically search for a selection of them that best describes the uncertainty of the data. This methodology can be applied to various scenarios with available datasets and a limited understanding of the phenomenon. It aims to generate models that not only achieve precision but also incorporate terms that correspond to identifiable processes, which can be explained within the context of the study problem.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024-01-01
2024
2024-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/117441
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/117441
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv PID2020-115270GB-I00 Not available Not available
PDC2022-133429- I00 Not available Not available
PID2021-125549OB-I00 Not available Not available
MCIN AEI 10.13039
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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