How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul

This article provides a first attempt at evaluating the performance of the German intelligence community when anticipating ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq and its reach into Europe in 2013–2014. It applies a new analytical framework for postmortem exercises after foreign policy crises, which c...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Michaels, Eva
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Repositorio:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/49084
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49084
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Estat Islàmic (Organització)
Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- Islamisme
Terrorisme -- Orient Mitjà
Gihad
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spelling How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of MosulMichaels, EvaEstat Islàmic (Organització)Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- IslamismeTerrorisme -- Orient MitjàGihadThis article provides a first attempt at evaluating the performance of the German intelligence community when anticipating ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq and its reach into Europe in 2013–2014. It applies a new analytical framework for postmortem exercises after foreign policy crises, which centres on nuanced discussions of surprise and contextualised assessments of performance. This article finds evidence of partial to significant surprise among German intelligence analysts vis-à-vis four key events. Their performance was hindered by diagnostic difficulties and structural constraints, which affected their ability to identify risks related to underlying vulnerabilities in Iraq and Syria.The past support of the UK Economic and Social Research Council (Grant ES/R004331/1) is gratefully acknowledged.Taylor & Francis20212022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10230/49084http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPFinstname:Universitat Pompeu FabraInglésIntelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76© This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Intelligence and National Security on 2022, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/490842026-06-12T07:21:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
title How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
spellingShingle How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
Michaels, Eva
Estat Islàmic (Organització)
Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- Islamisme
Terrorisme -- Orient Mitjà
Gihad
title_short How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
title_full How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
title_fullStr How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
title_full_unstemmed How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
title_sort How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Michaels, Eva
author Michaels, Eva
author_facet Michaels, Eva
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Estat Islàmic (Organització)
Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- Islamisme
Terrorisme -- Orient Mitjà
Gihad
topic Estat Islàmic (Organització)
Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- Islamisme
Terrorisme -- Orient Mitjà
Gihad
description This article provides a first attempt at evaluating the performance of the German intelligence community when anticipating ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq and its reach into Europe in 2013–2014. It applies a new analytical framework for postmortem exercises after foreign policy crises, which centres on nuanced discussions of surprise and contextualised assessments of performance. This article finds evidence of partial to significant surprise among German intelligence analysts vis-à-vis four key events. Their performance was hindered by diagnostic difficulties and structural constraints, which affected their ability to identify risks related to underlying vulnerabilities in Iraq and Syria.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2022
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49084
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
url http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49084
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Intelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
instname:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
instname_str Universitat Pompeu Fabra
reponame_str Repositorio Digital de la UPF
collection Repositorio Digital de la UPF
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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