Unsupervised recognition and prediction of daily patterns in heating loads in buildings

This paper presents a multistep methodology combining unsupervised and supervised learning techniques for the identification of the daily heating energy consumption patterns in buildings. The relevant number of typical profiles is obtained through unsupervised clustering processes. Then Classificati...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Lumbreras Mugaguren, Mikel, Diarce Belloso, Gonzalo, Martín Escudero, Koldobika, Garay Martínez, R., Arregui, Beñat
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/61847
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/61847
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:pattern recognition
unsupervised clustering
heating loads
daily profiles
Descripción
Sumario:This paper presents a multistep methodology combining unsupervised and supervised learning techniques for the identification of the daily heating energy consumption patterns in buildings. The relevant number of typical profiles is obtained through unsupervised clustering processes. Then Classification and Regression Trees are used to predict the profile type corresponding to external variables, including calendar and climatic variables, from any given day. The methodology is tested with a variety of datasets for three different buildings with different uses connected to the district heating network in Tartu (Estonia). The three buildings under analysis present different energy behaviors (residential, kindergarten and commercial buildings). The paper shows that unsupervised clustering is effective for pattern recognition since the results from the classification and regression trees match the results from the unsupervised clustering. Three main patterns have been identified in each building, seasonality and daily mean temperature being the variables that have the greatest effect. The results concluded that the best classification accuracy is obtained with a small number of clusters with a classification accuracy from 0.7 to 0.85, approximately.