Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and Med-CORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs...

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Autores: Colmet-Daage, Antoine, Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia, Ricci, Sophie, Llovel, Cecile, Borrell Estupina, Valerie, Quintana Seguí, Pere, Llasat Botija, María del Carmen, Servat, Eric
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/121781
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/121781
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Canvi climàtic
Inundacions
Catalunya
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Climatic change
Floods
Catalonia
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spelling Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensemblesColmet-Daage, AntoineSanchez-Gomez, EmiliaRicci, SophieLlovel, CecileBorrell Estupina, ValerieQuintana Seguí, PereLlasat Botija, María del CarmenServat, EricPrecipitacions (Meteorologia)Canvi climàticInundacionsCatalunyaPrecipitations (Meteorology)Climatic changeFloodsCataloniaThe climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and Med-CORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981-2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.European Geosciences Union (EGU)2018info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/121781Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, vol. 22, num. 1, p. 673-687https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018cc-by (c) Colmet-Daage, Antoine et al., 2018http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/esinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1217812026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
title Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
spellingShingle Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
Colmet-Daage, Antoine
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Canvi climàtic
Inundacions
Catalunya
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Climatic change
Floods
Catalonia
title_short Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
title_full Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
title_fullStr Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
title_sort Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Colmet-Daage, Antoine
Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ricci, Sophie
Llovel, Cecile
Borrell Estupina, Valerie
Quintana Seguí, Pere
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Servat, Eric
author Colmet-Daage, Antoine
author_facet Colmet-Daage, Antoine
Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ricci, Sophie
Llovel, Cecile
Borrell Estupina, Valerie
Quintana Seguí, Pere
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Servat, Eric
author_role author
author2 Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ricci, Sophie
Llovel, Cecile
Borrell Estupina, Valerie
Quintana Seguí, Pere
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Servat, Eric
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Canvi climàtic
Inundacions
Catalunya
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Climatic change
Floods
Catalonia
topic Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Canvi climàtic
Inundacions
Catalunya
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Climatic change
Floods
Catalonia
description The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and Med-CORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981-2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/121781
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/121781
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, vol. 22, num. 1, p. 673-687
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Colmet-Daage, Antoine et al., 2018
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Colmet-Daage, Antoine et al., 2018
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv European Geosciences Union (EGU)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv European Geosciences Union (EGU)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,298079

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