Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique

In this study we assess the suitability of a recently introduced analog-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) downscaling method (referred to as MOS-Analog) for climate change studies and compare the results with a quantile mapping bias correction method. To this aim, we focus on Spain and consider da...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Turco, Marco, Llasat Botija, María del Carmen, Herrera García, Sixto, Gutiérrez, José Manuel
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/120576
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/120576
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Canvi climàtic
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Espanya
Climatic change
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Spain
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spelling Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog techniqueTurco, MarcoLlasat Botija, María del CarmenHerrera García, SixtoGutiérrez, José ManuelCanvi climàticPrecipitacions (Meteorologia)EspanyaClimatic changePrecipitations (Meteorology)SpainIn this study we assess the suitability of a recently introduced analog-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) downscaling method (referred to as MOS-Analog) for climate change studies and compare the results with a quantile mapping bias correction method. To this aim, we focus on Spain and consider daily precipitation output from an ensemble of Regional Climate Models provided by the ENSEMBLES project. The reanalysis-driven Regional Climate Model (RCM) data provide the historical data (with day-to-day correspondence with observations induced by the forcing boundary conditions) to conduct the analog search of the control (20C3M) and future (A1B) global climate model (GCM)-driven RCM values. First, we show that the MOS-Analog method outperforms the raw RCM output in the control 20C3M scenario (period 1971-2000) for all considered regions and precipitation indices, although for the worst-performing models the method is less effective. Second, we show that the MOS-Analog method broadly preserves the original RCM climate change signal for different future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), except for those indices related to extreme precipitation. This could be explained by the limitation of the analog method to extrapolate unobserved precipitation records. These results suggest that the MOS-Analog is a spatially consistent alternative to standard bias correction methods, although the limitation for extreme values should be taken with caution in cases where this aspect is relevant for the problem.American Geophysical Union (AGU)2017info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/120576Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025724Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2017, vol. 122, num. 5, p. 2631-2648https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025724(c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1205762026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
title Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
spellingShingle Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
Turco, Marco
Canvi climàtic
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Espanya
Climatic change
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Spain
title_short Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
title_full Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
title_fullStr Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
title_full_unstemmed Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
title_sort Bias correction and downscaling future RCM precipitation projections using a MOS-analog technique
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Turco, Marco
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Herrera García, Sixto
Gutiérrez, José Manuel
author Turco, Marco
author_facet Turco, Marco
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Herrera García, Sixto
Gutiérrez, José Manuel
author_role author
author2 Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Herrera García, Sixto
Gutiérrez, José Manuel
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Canvi climàtic
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Espanya
Climatic change
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Spain
topic Canvi climàtic
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Espanya
Climatic change
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Spain
description In this study we assess the suitability of a recently introduced analog-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) downscaling method (referred to as MOS-Analog) for climate change studies and compare the results with a quantile mapping bias correction method. To this aim, we focus on Spain and consider daily precipitation output from an ensemble of Regional Climate Models provided by the ENSEMBLES project. The reanalysis-driven Regional Climate Model (RCM) data provide the historical data (with day-to-day correspondence with observations induced by the forcing boundary conditions) to conduct the analog search of the control (20C3M) and future (A1B) global climate model (GCM)-driven RCM values. First, we show that the MOS-Analog method outperforms the raw RCM output in the control 20C3M scenario (period 1971-2000) for all considered regions and precipitation indices, although for the worst-performing models the method is less effective. Second, we show that the MOS-Analog method broadly preserves the original RCM climate change signal for different future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), except for those indices related to extreme precipitation. This could be explained by the limitation of the analog method to extrapolate unobserved precipitation records. These results suggest that the MOS-Analog is a spatially consistent alternative to standard bias correction methods, although the limitation for extreme values should be taken with caution in cases where this aspect is relevant for the problem.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/120576
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/120576
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025724
Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2017, vol. 122, num. 5, p. 2631-2648
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025724
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union (AGU)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,198674

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