Impact of duration and missing data on the long-term photovoltaic degradation rate estimation

Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (RD) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although RD is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impac...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Romero-Fiances, Irene, Livera, Andreas, Theristis, Marios, Makrides, George, Steiner, Joshua S., Nofuentes, Gustavo, De la Casa, Juan, Georghiou, George
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Jaén
Repositorio:RUJA. Repositorio Institucional de la Producción Científica de la Universidad de Jaén
OAI Identifier:oai:ruja.ujaen.es:10953/6412
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.09.078
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812101404X
https://hdl.handle.net/10953/6412
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Missing data
Degradation rate
Performance
Photovoltaic
Time series duration
3322.05
Descripción
Sumario:Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (RD) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although RD is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of time period duration and missing data on RD by analyzing the performance of different techniques applied to syn-thetic PV system data at different linear RD patterns and known noise conditions. The analysis includes the application of different techniques to a 10-year synthetic dataset of a crystalline Silicon PV system, with emulated degradation levels and imputed missing data. The analysis demonstrated that the ac-curacy of ordinary least squares (OLS), year-on-year (YOY), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and robust principal component analysis (RPCA) techniques is affected by the evaluation duration with all techniques converging to lower RD deviations over the 10-year evaluation, apart from RPCA at high degradation levels. Moreover, the estimated RD is strongly affected by the amount of missing data. Filtering out the corrupted data yielded more accurate RD results for all techniques. It is proven that the application of a change-point detection stage is necessary and guidelines for accurate RD estimation are provided.