Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we in...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Auer, Cornelia, Puig Cepero, Oriol, Wunderling, Nico
Tipo de documento: artigo
Estado:Versão publicada
Data de publicação:2025
País:España
Recursos:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Repositório:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/72650
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72650
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:Canvis climàtics
Canvis climàtics -- Unió Europea, Països de la
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spelling Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impactsAuer, CorneliaPuig Cepero, OriolWunderling, NicoCanvis climàticsCanvis climàtics -- Unió Europea, Països de laIn an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.The work of all authors for this publication has been supported by the European Commission H2020-funded project CASCADES (CAScading Climate risks: towards ADaptive and resilient European Societies, grant agreement no. 821010). C.A. acknowledges support from and the Federal Foreign Office of Germany (grant agreement no. AA38220002). N.W. acknowledges support from the Center for Critical Computational Studies and the Pb-TIP project. A. Detges thanks A. Kibaroglu and O. Brown for their continuous support in designing and implementing the stakeholder engagement process. I.M. acknowledges support from the G24-V20 task force on Climate, Development and the IMF. We are grateful to all stakeholders and experts who contributed to the co-production activities. We thank O. Grafham, R. Ebrey and P. van Ackern for their support throughout the stakeholder engagement process, D. D. Padinjaremury for her help with formatting the manuscript and B. Naprawa for support with the figures.Nature Research2026202620252026info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10230/72650http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPFinstname:Universitat Pompeu FabraInglésNature Climate Change. 2025 Nov;15:1226-33info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821010This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/726502026-06-12T07:21:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
title Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
spellingShingle Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
Auer, Cornelia
Canvis climàtics
Canvis climàtics -- Unió Europea, Països de la
title_short Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
title_full Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
title_fullStr Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
title_full_unstemmed Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
title_sort Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Auer, Cornelia
Puig Cepero, Oriol
Wunderling, Nico
author Auer, Cornelia
author_facet Auer, Cornelia
Puig Cepero, Oriol
Wunderling, Nico
author_role author
author2 Puig Cepero, Oriol
Wunderling, Nico
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Canvis climàtics
Canvis climàtics -- Unió Europea, Països de la
topic Canvis climàtics
Canvis climàtics -- Unió Europea, Països de la
description In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72650
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2
url https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72650
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Nature Climate Change. 2025 Nov;15:1226-33
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821010
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
instname:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
instname_str Universitat Pompeu Fabra
reponame_str Repositorio Digital de la UPF
collection Repositorio Digital de la UPF
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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