Inflation Persistence in the G7 : The Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine War

This note analyses how shocks caused by the Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine crisis impact on inflation persistence G7 countries. Using data ending at December-2019, high estimates of the persistence parameter d indicate a strong persistence of inflation. The unit root hypothesis could not be refuted...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Usman, Nuruddeen, Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Málaga
Repositorio:DDFV. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Francisco de Vitoria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddfv.ufv.es:10641/6890
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/10641/6890
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Covid-19 pandemic
Russia-Ukraine war
fractional integration
inflation persistence
Economics and Econometrics
yes
Descrição
Resumo:This note analyses how shocks caused by the Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine crisis impact on inflation persistence G7 countries. Using data ending at December-2019, high estimates of the persistence parameter d indicate a strong persistence of inflation. The unit root hypothesis could not be refuted for Germany, Japan, and the United States, while this hypothesis is rejected in favour of higher orders of integration in the remaining cases. Expanding the dataset to include the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis reveal that d-values remain significantly elevated across all countries, reinforcing the persistence of inflation. Interestingly, Canada, previously excluded from the group, now aligns with Germany, Japan, and the United States. This suggests a change in inflation dynamics for Canada during these extraordinary periods. Additionally, employing a recursive estimate reveals a slight increase in inflation persistence for most countries, except Japan, which exhibits an almost flat trend in the evolution of the differencing parameter.