Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control

© The Author(s) 2016 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit...

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Autores: González-Eguino, Mikel, Neumann, Marc B.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Institución:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/20790
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/20790
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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spelling Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change controlGonzález-Eguino, MikelNeumann, Marc B.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGEMETEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES© The Author(s) 2016 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Large amounts of carbon are stored as permafrost within the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. As permafrost thaws due to climate warming, carbon dioxide and methane are released. Recent studies indicate that the pool of carbon susceptible to future thaw is higher than was previously thought and that more carbon could be released by 2100, even under low emission pathways. We use an integrated model of the climate and the economy to study how including these new estimates influence the control of climate change to levels that will likely keep the temperature increase below 2 °C (radiative forcing of 2.6 Wm−2). According to our simulations, the fossil fuel and industrial CO2 emissions need to peak 5–10 years earlier and the carbon budget needs to be reduced by 6–17 % to offset this additional source of warming. The required increase in carbon price implies a 6–21 % higher mitigation cost to society compared to a situation where emissions from permafrost are not considered. Including other positive climate feedbacks, currently not accounted for in integrated assessment models, could further increase these numbers.The authors thank Iñigo Capellán-Perez, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Jon Sampedro, Paul Sztorc, Dirk-Jan. van de Ven and two anonymous referees for valuable comments that helped us improve the manuscript. This study received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 642260 (TRANSrisk project). Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino also acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (ECO2015-68023) and the Basque Government (IT-799-13). Marc B. Neumann acknowledges financial support from the Ramón y Cajal Research Fellowship of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (no. RYC-2013-13628). The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.Climatic ChangeEuropean Commission201720172016info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10810/20790reponame:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigacióninstname:Universidad del País VascoInglésinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/644202BC3 Journal Articles;JA-1163http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1666-5info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/207902026-06-18T09:23:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
title Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
spellingShingle Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
González-Eguino, Mikel
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
title_short Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
title_full Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
title_fullStr Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
title_full_unstemmed Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
title_sort Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv González-Eguino, Mikel
Neumann, Marc B.
author González-Eguino, Mikel
author_facet González-Eguino, Mikel
Neumann, Marc B.
author_role author
author2 Neumann, Marc B.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv European Commission
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
topic GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
description © The Author(s) 2016 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
2017
2017
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10810/20790
url http://hdl.handle.net/10810/20790
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/644202
BC3 Journal Articles;JA-1163
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1666-5
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Climatic Change
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Climatic Change
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
instname:Universidad del País Vasco
instname_str Universidad del País Vasco
reponame_str Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
collection Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.301603

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