Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology

Aim.- To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods.- For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estima...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Trias Llimós, Sergi|||0000-0002-8052-6736, Bardoutsos, Anastasios, Janssen, Fanny|||0000-0002-3110-238X
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:237336
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/237336
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1093/alcalc/agaa107
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Ethanol
Alcohol drinking
Mortality
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spelling Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodologyTrias Llimós, Sergi|||0000-0002-8052-6736Bardoutsos, AnastasiosJanssen, Fanny|||0000-0002-3110-238XEthanolAlcohol drinkingMortalityAim.- To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods.- For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results.- Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). Conclusion.- Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France's levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents. 22020-01-0120202020-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/237336https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1093/alcalc/agaa107reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:2373362026-06-06T12:50:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
title Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
spellingShingle Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
Trias Llimós, Sergi|||0000-0002-8052-6736
Ethanol
Alcohol drinking
Mortality
title_short Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
title_full Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
title_fullStr Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
title_full_unstemmed Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
title_sort Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Trias Llimós, Sergi|||0000-0002-8052-6736
Bardoutsos, Anastasios
Janssen, Fanny|||0000-0002-3110-238X
author Trias Llimós, Sergi|||0000-0002-8052-6736
author_facet Trias Llimós, Sergi|||0000-0002-8052-6736
Bardoutsos, Anastasios
Janssen, Fanny|||0000-0002-3110-238X
author_role author
author2 Bardoutsos, Anastasios
Janssen, Fanny|||0000-0002-3110-238X
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ethanol
Alcohol drinking
Mortality
topic Ethanol
Alcohol drinking
Mortality
description Aim.- To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods.- For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results.- Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). Conclusion.- Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France's levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2
2020-01-01
2020
2020-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://ddd.uab.cat/record/237336
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1093/alcalc/agaa107
url https://ddd.uab.cat/record/237336
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1093/alcalc/agaa107
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
instname_str Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
collection Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
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