Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?

Business tendency surveys are commonly used to provide estimations ofa wide range of macroeconomic variables before the publication of official data. The qualitative nature of data on the direction of change has often led to quantifying survey results making use of official data, introducing a measu...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Clavería González, Óscar, Pons Fanals, Ernest, Suriñach Caralt, Jordi
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2006
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:2445/66861
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/66861
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Previsió econòmica
Inflació
Consumidors
Previsió dels negocis
Economic forecasting
Inflation
Consumers
Business forecasting
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spelling Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?Clavería González, ÓscarPons Fanals, ErnestSuriñach Caralt, JordiPrevisió econòmicaInflacióConsumidorsPrevisió dels negocisEconomic forecastingInflationConsumersBusiness forecastingBusiness tendency surveys are commonly used to provide estimations ofa wide range of macroeconomic variables before the publication of official data. The qualitative nature of data on the direction of change has often led to quantifying survey results making use of official data, introducing a measurement error due to incorrect assumptions. Through Monte Carlo simulations it is possible to isolate the measurem.ent error introduced by incorrect assumptions when quantifying survey results. By means of a simulation experiment we check the effect on the measurem.ent error of respondents diverging from, 'rationality'. We also analyse the predictive performance of different quantification methods for fourteen EU countries and the euro area. We fmd that allowing for asymmetric and stochastic response thresholds (indifference interval) produces a lower measurement error and more accurate forecasts.Nottingham Trent University2015201520062015info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion20 p.application/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/66861Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésReproducció del document publicat a: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Vol11.html#a7Economic Issues, 2006, vol. 11, num. 2, p. 19-38(c) Nottingham Trent University, 2006info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:2445/668612026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
title Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
spellingShingle Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
Clavería González, Óscar
Previsió econòmica
Inflació
Consumidors
Previsió dels negocis
Economic forecasting
Inflation
Consumers
Business forecasting
title_short Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
title_full Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
title_fullStr Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
title_full_unstemmed Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
title_sort Quantification of expectations. Are they useful for forecasting inflation?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Clavería González, Óscar
Pons Fanals, Ernest
Suriñach Caralt, Jordi
author Clavería González, Óscar
author_facet Clavería González, Óscar
Pons Fanals, Ernest
Suriñach Caralt, Jordi
author_role author
author2 Pons Fanals, Ernest
Suriñach Caralt, Jordi
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Previsió econòmica
Inflació
Consumidors
Previsió dels negocis
Economic forecasting
Inflation
Consumers
Business forecasting
topic Previsió econòmica
Inflació
Consumidors
Previsió dels negocis
Economic forecasting
Inflation
Consumers
Business forecasting
description Business tendency surveys are commonly used to provide estimations ofa wide range of macroeconomic variables before the publication of official data. The qualitative nature of data on the direction of change has often led to quantifying survey results making use of official data, introducing a measurement error due to incorrect assumptions. Through Monte Carlo simulations it is possible to isolate the measurem.ent error introduced by incorrect assumptions when quantifying survey results. By means of a simulation experiment we check the effect on the measurem.ent error of respondents diverging from, 'rationality'. We also analyse the predictive performance of different quantification methods for fourteen EU countries and the euro area. We fmd that allowing for asymmetric and stochastic response thresholds (indifference interval) produces a lower measurement error and more accurate forecasts.
publishDate 2006
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2006
2015
2015
2015
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/66861
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/66861
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Vol11.html#a7
Economic Issues, 2006, vol. 11, num. 2, p. 19-38
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) Nottingham Trent University, 2006
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) Nottingham Trent University, 2006
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 20 p.
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nottingham Trent University
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nottingham Trent University
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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